Why quarantine really saves lives

The coronavirus pandemic is gaining momentum. how considers Mark Lipsitch, a Harvard epidemiologist who specializes in infectious diseases, it is likely that 20-60% of adults will eventually contract COVID-19. But it is not the number of cases that is critical here, but the rate of infection.

Most of all, experts fear a sharp spike in incidence, as a result of which more people will need hospitalization than hospitals can accept. In this case, mortality will increase, because there will not be enough hospital beds and ventilators to save everyone.

Therefore, the main strategy to reduce the incidence rate was the measures that we already hear about every day. Cancellation of mass events, calls for self-isolation, avoid crowded places, work from home - all this must be done to slow down the spread of the virus.

Here is the result such measures can lead to:

Biologist Karl T. Bergstorm, from the University of Washington, tweeted an entire threadexplaining how important the graph above is (originally published by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, after which it was adapted several times). In short, his genius is that he clearly explains the meaning and purpose of self-isolation, and shows that the situation can be changed if

Emily Landon, University of Chicago infectious disease specialist told to Vox: “If we all do this [that is, take protective measures], we can slow the spread of the disease. This means that your mothers and mine can get treatment if they need it. ”

That is why even healthy young people should stay at home. “The more young people get sick at the same time, the more elderly people they will infect, and the more pressure there will be on the healthcare system. Now you can see a doctor if you need it, but the situation will get worse if we are not careful and doctors have to choose who to help, ”adds Landon.