Oscar 2020 winners predicted by analyst

Ben Zozmer, The Hollywood Reporter Analyst published his own annual forecast of Oscar winners in different nominations. For the analysis, we used data on all the winners of previous years, as well as victories and nominations for films in other prestigious film awards. All the magic was done by the computer and special algorithms. This method really works in most cases - and in 2018 Zozmer was able to predict all the nominations.

This year's Best Film was the hardest part, as here are a few rules that statistics based on past winners have revealed:

1. Since the inception of the Best Editing nomination in 1934, no film has won major awards without a Editing or Actor / Actress nomination;
2. Since the founding of the Directors Guild of America Awards in 1948, no film has won a major Oscar without a Guild win or an editing nomination;
3. Films in a language other than English have never won this category;
4. A film produced by a streaming service has never won this award;
5. The movie comic has never been the best movie.

However, if “1917»Wins, the first rule is broken. Similar problems with "Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood"With the second item,"Parasites"- with the third,"Irish"- with the fourth, while"Joker"- with the fifth. Of course, this does not mean that the entire top five should be discounted - this only influenced the statistics and showed that times can change.

Best Film - "1917"

It looks like we are waiting for the first ever winner of the main "Oscar" with a name consisting only of numbers. Thanks to victories at the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and the Producers and Directors Guild Awards, 1917 has every chance of getting this statuette. But "Parasites" and "Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood" also should not be discounted.

Best Director - Sam Mendes ("1917")

Over the past 17 years, no director who has won a major Directors Guild award has missed out on a corresponding Oscar. The rule is rarely violated, but unlikely this year - Sam Mendes did an amazing job on "1917", removing it with a minimum of subtle glue. This painstaking work will almost certainly be rewarded at the presentation ceremony.

Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix

Nobody got that award (or even a nomination) playing a comic book hero (Heath Ledger doesn't count - his Joker won an Oscar for a minor role). Looks like Joaquin Phoenix will continue to win the film awards and receive this statuette as well.

Best Actress - Renee Zellweger ("Judy")

Like Phoenix, Zellweger has amassed many awards this season. Statistics show that her chances of winning are 90%, and her rivals are far behind.

Other nominations

• Best Supporting Actor - Brad Pitt ("Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood");
• Best Supporting Actress - Laura Dern ("The Marriage Story");
• Best Original Screenplay - Han Jin-woo, Bong Joon-ho ("Parasites");
• Best Adaptation Screenplay - Taika Waititi ("Jojo Rabbit");
• Best Animated Feature Film - “Toy Story 4»;
• Best Documentary Film - "American Factory";
• Best Foreign Language Film - "Parasites";
• Best Production Designer - "Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood";
• Best Cinematography - "1917";
• Best Editing - Ford vs. Ferrari;
• Best Visual Effects - "Avengers Endgame»;
• Best Music - "Joker";
• Best Song - (I'm Gonna) Love Me Again ("Rocketman»);
• Best Costume Design - Little Women.

The full list of nominees can be found in this article. The award ceremony will be held soon: on the night of February 9-10.