Blast from the Past: iPhone had to die in agony

Do you know why you can not be offended by opinionated onolitegov, who imagine themselves modern Nostradamus? Because it will take a couple of years - and time will all fall into place. For example, analysis of a Billy Ray, who is already far in 2006, just a month before the release of the first "iPhone", the beginning of the way, "Apple's phone" predicted fairly accurately, but the conclusions were Faerie. Translate all does not make sense, and here are some quotes after seven years of a very funny read.

In general, the author begins, of course, as with the "iPod": the popularity of the player that boasts a stylish design, compact and capacious storage in 2006 could no longer be denied. The ability of Apple to release equally cool phone are not put into question, but who follow the mobile market with the times knows that if fully taxiing cellular operators: they dictate to manufacturers what features they are interested in to see the devices that they were ready to subsidize. If the producer insisted on his models functionality - it had to either subsidize its novelty alone or to sell at a realistic price.

Obviously, Ray immediately took Apple to the second type of companies that will not go on about opsosov, which means that the real price "Apple" phones will be non-competitive in comparison with the device, which, together with the contract subscriber receives is free. Next comes the curious assumption (some of it probably remember):

Some speculate that Apple will simply create your own virtual mobile network operator and will finance a program to subsidize, "serving" of money on calls and use service iTunes. However, iTunes has always existed for the sale of devices, rather than production subsidies. The service is not intended to make money, and how costly it is no matter, it is unlikely this will cover the cost of the release of a stylish handset as if Apple suddenly began to distribute "iPods" is free.

So let us return to Apple, we sell phones to existing mobile operators, using the tactics of their competitors. Surely you can play on a simple interface and convenient access to services operators, but it is much more likely that Apple will sell the product with exclusive rights to a single operator in each individual territory.

It's great, right? As a result, everything is as it happened: Apple had to spend a lot of negotiations with a number of opsosov. This significantly limited the potential sales volume, but at the same time reduce the burden on the Apple production capacity, while the company showed the world its potential in the new market.

Until now, the author showed amazing foresight (unless, of course, he was none of the insiders do not blabbed key features of Apple strategy). However, in conclusion, Ray took it and blew it:

In every region of the Apple phone will be exclusively sold through one of the leading networks, and to get the limited functionality of the product, some customers even change operator. But soon it will come to understand that the functionality of the competition is higher and even lower price, sales will fall. A year later, a new version, but, compared with the first phone, there's little that is new, and the product will be forgotten.

The only remaining question is whether, when the iPod-phone will fail if he will carry off with them to the bottom and the iPod?

However, what would have cost Apple, if a year or two she could not refute these predictions! Fortunately, we are now pleased to call to "phones Apple», and according to the financial indicators iPhone is very far from its collapse. :)

— By Material The Register