"I knew that, and so it will be!" Why do we believe that the result of anticipated events
Forming / / December 19, 2019
Let's say you want to invite you to a meeting a cute man. If he refuses, you exclaim: "I knew it! It is evident also that he is too good for me. " And if you agree, say, "I knew it! After all, I obviously liked me. " Something that has already happened, it always seems obvious and predictable. And this work is a retrospective distortion.
New information distorts our memories
The result of any event impossible to predict. We can only speculate. But after, when all the information we have in hand, we think that we anticipated outcome. The initial view is distorted fact. We begin to believe that thought so from the very beginning. This is a retrospective distortion, or error hayndsayta From English hindsight - judgment retroactively. .
Brain continually updating the data we have. This protects the memory overload and helps to make relevant conclusions. Error hayndsayta same - a side effect of this process.
People have noticed it for a long time, but carefully studied only in the mid-1970s. To do this, we conducted a series of experiments
I Knew It Would Happen: Remembered Probabilities of Once-Future Things.. Thus, in one of them, participants evaluated the probability of events that may occur after the visit of the American president to Beijing and Moscow. After his return they were asked to recall what they saw as the most likely in the first poll.And the participants choose the option that actually happened - even if the president's trip to evaluated them differently.
At the heartHindsight Bias this mistake of thinking are three effects that interact with each other:
- distortion of memories ( "I have said that this will"). Our memories not static. Seeing a fait accompli, we begin to think that really inclined to it.
- the inevitable effect ("It had to happen"). We are trying to make sense of what happened, based on the information that we now have. And we conclude: if an event happened, so it was inevitable.
- the predictability of the effect ( "From the beginning I knew it was going to happen"). Once the event is "inevitable", it means that it is easy to foresee. We begin to believe that so they did.
For example, you inspected the movie and find out who was the murderer. You look back: remember the plot twists and characters cues that hint at such a finale. No matter what impression you while watching - now you feel that you understand everything from the beginning. And it's not just limited to movies.
And it can be dangerous
The future is not expected. But after a series of successful matches you can believe that you do it under force. If your assumptions are true, self-confidence increases. And quickly moves in overconfidence. Of course, once you have predicted past events, therefore, you can predict the future. Now you too rely on their intuition and goes to unnecessary risks.
And well even if they only affect you. But if you are a judge or a doctor, your mistakes can affect other people. For example, we have already provedHindsight bias in legal decision making.That retrospective distortion effect on the decision in the legal system.
More, it prevents us from learning from their mistakes. If you think you know the outcome of the case from the beginning, you do not stop to think about the real causes of the incident.
"It was inevitable," - you say, to hide the truth from you: you can do something different.
For example, you come to an interview, which is not prepared in advance. You do not answer the questions, and gets another job, even if he is less qualified than you. It is difficult to accept the idea that you are guilty, so you convince yourself that everything was predetermined.
How to deal with this error
We often reject information that does not fit into our world picture. To overcome this, imagine what else could be a situation. Try rationalize other scenarios - so you will clearly see the cause-effect relationships.
Keep a diary of predictions. Burn it their assumptions about changes in the political life and career, about his weight and health of the possible final favorite series.
From time to time, compare these records with the present state of affairs. And you wonder how bad you "predict" the future.
Read the diaries of historical figures and compare their assumptions with the actual course of events. Take a look at five news, a ten or twenty years ago. And you will understand how life is really unpredictable.
And, of course, remind yourself about hayndsayta error. When you want to cry, "I knew that, and so it will be!", Slow down. And if during the spore your partner says that he was always right, do him a favor. After all, he really believes this is due to the retrospective distortion.
see also🧐
- 13 examples of how our brain distorts reality
- 20 cognitive biases that affect your decisions
- Why is your choice seems to be the best, even if it is not