5 techniques of game theory to help you avoid making mistakes

Books A Life / by admin / December 19, 2019

1. The game of goodbye

In each situation, we adhere to a certain strategy. This usually happens unconsciously, hence the frequent errors. To avoid them, you can, if you learn to guess the actions of another person.

Take, for example, a date. We all choose one main strategy: trying to hide negative personality traits and show the positive.

While I will not tell you that every night I like to lie down on the couch with a beer. I'll tell you when she finds me more closely and understand that otherwise I'm okay.
Paul, sofa expert

This strategy - rather, it is not a lie, and silence.

Example

Imagine the situation: a man and a woman meet for several months and one day decide to move in together. The man has a small apartment, so it is logical that we are talking about moving into an apartment woman.

I must say that the man works as an economist. He analyzed the situation and realized that refuse to rent an apartment as long as it is unprofitable. Now he pays a little money and in the case of a breakup will not find the same good option. The woman, having learned about it, immediately throws the gentleman.

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What a mistake this pair? Man, right calculate the situation from an economic point of view, did not consider the psychological factor. Gesture with the flat of a woman perceived as a frivolous intentions. But she never thought that her admirer - economist, therefore, makes decisions in the first place from the perspective of "profitable - unprofitable." Thus, this game was lost by both parties.

What to do

To calculate not only your actions, but also the reaction of other people. Often ask yourself: what can be interpreted my action? The Council specifically for men: to explain his actions and remember that any nedogovoronnost - an occasion for the second half of your dream. Strategic thinking - is not only mathematics, but also psychology!

2. 90 points a game

Puzzles, quests, intelligence test scores and logic no longer be an issue after studying the theory of games. You will learn how to search for all available response options, and choose among them the most appropriate.

Example

Two students asked the professor to postpone the exam. They told sentimental story about how the weekend went on to another city, but on the way back they had a flat tire. Help had to search through the night, so they do not get enough sleep and feel bad. (In fact, friends celebrated the end of the session, and the final exam was not the most difficult.)

The professor agreed. The next day he seated students in different audiences and distributed on leaflets, where there were only two questions. The first was worth only 10 points, and the second - 90 and was: "What is a flat tire?"

If you rely on logic, then the answer is "right front wheel": it is on the right, closer to the side of the road more often lying trash, which primarily comes over the front tire. But do not hurry.

In this situation, it is important to give not only the right (logical) answer as the answer to be written on paper other.

Therefore it is obvious that both the student will speculate on the assumption, as the other was thinking.

We can argue as follows: whether the students something "in common" with one of the wheels? Perhaps a year ago, they together had been changed for a wheel. Or one tire smeared with paint, and both students are aware of this. If such a point is found, and this option should be selected. Even if another student not familiar with game theory, he can remember this event and specify the desired wheel.

What to do

The arguments are based not only on logic, but also on life circumstances. Remember, not all that logical to you, just as it is logical for the other. Increasingly attracting friends and family to a game on the thinking. This will help you understand how to think people close to you, and continue to avoid difficult situations, as in the example above.

3. Game with a

Knowledge of strategic games help to deeply analyze their own decisions.

Example

Certain Olga decides to try her to smoke or not.

The figure shows the so-called tree of the game: it is useful to draw every time you need to take any action. The branches of this tree - scenarios. The numbers (0, 1 and -1) - gain, i.e. whether the player is a winner if will choose a particular option.

So, where to begin. At first it is necessary to determine which solution will be the best and the worst. Suppose that the most preferred course of events for Olga - to try smoking, but do not continue to do that. Assign winning this embodiment 1 (first digit lower left threads). In the worst case the girl would be dependent on smoking: assign to this embodiment, the gain -1 (the first digit of the right lower branches). Thus, the branch of a tree with one does not try smoking get 0.

Suppose that Olga decided to try smoking. What's next? Throw it or not? This will be to decide the future Olga, Figure it comes into play on the branch "Try". If she has already formed relationship, then she does not want to throw smoke, so the option «Continue» 1 set win (the second digit of the right lower branches).

What do we get? Olga will present the winner in the event that try smoking, but do not fall into the addiction. And this, in turn, depends on the future of Olga, which is more profitable for smoking (she was smoking a long time ago, so it has a relationship, therefore, she does not want to throw). So is it worth such a risk? Maybe play a draw: 0 to get the win, and do not try to smoke?

What to do

Calculate the strategy can not only play with someone, but in the game itself. Try to draw the game tree, and you will see whether lead your current solution to win.

4. Playing in the auction

There are different types of auctions. For example, in the movie "The Twelve Chairs" took place the so-called English auction. His scheme is simple: the winner is the one who offers the highest amount of exposed item. the minimum step is usually set to raise the price, not in the rest of the restrictions.

Example

In the episode with the auction of the "Twelve chairs" Ostap Bender made a strategic mistake. Following the proposal of 145 rubles for the lot, he immediately raised the price up to two hundred.

From the point of view of the theory of games Ostap should raise rates, but the minimum as long as the competition remains. Thus, he would be able to save money and not be trapped: Ostap did not have 30 rubles to pay the fee.

What to do

There are games, such as auction, in which you need to play only his head. Determine in advance the tactics and think about the maximum amount you are willing to pay for the lot. Give yourself a word does not exceed the limit. This step will help to cope with excitement when he suddenly overtake you.

5. Playing an impersonal market

Impersonal market - are banks, insurance companies, contractors, consulates. In general, those participants in the game that do not have names and surnames. They are impersonal, but mistakenly believe that the rules of game theory are not applicable to them.

Example

Max goes to the bank in hopes of getting a loan. His credit history is not perfect: two years ago, he refused to put out six months another loan. An employee who receives the documents, said that, most likely, will not receive credit Maxim.

Then Maxim asks permission to deliver the documents. He brings an excerpt from the hospital confirming that his father during those six months was seriously ill. Maxim wrote a statement, which indicates the reason for the delay of payment of the previous loan (the money needed for treatment of his father). And after a while gets a new loan.

What to do

When you conduct business with impersonal players, always remember that behind them are hidden personality. Invent how to draw opponents to the game and set their own rules.

Game Theory - a new science, but it has already studied in the best universities of the world. The publishing house "Myth" was released textbook "Strategy Games". It will be useful if you want to learn how to analyze every action, make better decisions, better understanding of not only others but also themselves.

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