Scientists have calculated when global warming will reach critical levels

New research from scientists at Imperial College London showedthat by 2030 global carbon emissions will exceed safe limits. After this, the worst fears of climate scientists will begin to come true.

According to a new estimate, humanity could emit about 250 more gigatons of carbon dioxide before global warming will speed up. The probability that this will happen in 6 years is 50%. It was previously assumed that humans have another 500 “safe” gigatons of CO2 to keep temperature rises below 1.5°C. The 2°C threshold will be crossed within the next two decades with current emissions of 40 gigatons per year.

These estimates contain large uncertainties associated with the effects of other greenhouse gases, such as methane, the authors add. It is also unclear how different aspects of the climate system will respond to rising temperatures. For example, increased vegetation growth in some regions can absorb large amounts of CO2 and offset some of the warming, while changes in ocean circulation and melting ice sheets could speed it up. However, this uncertainty only underscores the need to quickly reduce emissions.

This study based on data from a recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.