Study: 1 in 6 vertebrate species could become extinct by the end of the century

Miscellaneous / by admin / April 05, 2023

If we do nothing, all parts of the ecosystem will suffer: from tiny insects to elephants and koalas.

Computer model of the Earth's ecosystem showedthat many of the animal species that can survive global warming depend on animals and plants that are more vulnerable to warming. As a result, scientists are predicting a mass co-extinction - although humans are still able to minimize the damage.

The calculations were carried out on one of the most powerful European supercomputers by ecologists from Europe and Australia. They created an artificial Earth, which they inhabited with various types of plants and animals - and added over 15 thousand food connections between them. Next, we launched a simulation in accordance with climate forecasts IPCC until 2100.

This made it possible to learn how animals would react to the disappearance of their main food, from migration to joint extinction. As a result, by 2050 the Earth will lose about 10% of the species of life, and by 2100 - up to 27%. At the same time, we are not only talking about insects and plants: by the end of the century, about 17.6% of vertebrate species will die out.

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Think of a predator losing its prey due to climate change. The extinction of a prey species is a "primary extinction" because it has become a victim of the warming itself. But if the predator has nothing to eat, it will also die out - this is already “joint extinction”.

There are other examples: when a parasite loses its host due to deforestation, or a flowering plant loses its pollinators because the temperature has risen. Each species depends on the others in one way or another.

Corey Bradshaw, Professor of Global Ecology at Flinders University (Australia)

The model shows a rather gloomy forecast of species diversity in the future, which once again confirms that we have entered the era of the sixth mass extinction. If we take into account the joint extinction, then in the worst of the three analyzed scenarios by 2100 The Earth will lose 34% more species than the reports based only on the primary extinction. The overall rate of extinction of vulnerable species over the next 75 years will be 184% higher than previously thought.

Scientists note that children who are born now and live until the end of the century will see the disappearance of thousands of species of plants and animals in their lifetime: from orchids and tiny insects to elephants and koalas. Only the joint efforts of mankind can slow down this process.