What is "projection distortion" and how it affects our decisions
Miscellaneous / / February 09, 2022
This thinking trap makes us short-sighted.
What is the feature of distortion due to projection
Every day we make decisions that affect our future. It can come in an hour (what to eat for lunch?). Or in a few months or even years (maybe you should open your own business?). Unfortunately, it is difficult for our brain to imagine what needs we will have in the future. Therefore, he takes a shortcut and makes decisions based on our feelings here and now.
This thinking trap, related to our ability to predict the future, calledWhy do we think our current preferences will remain the same in the future? / The Decision Lab projection distortion. Its essence is that we subconsciously believe that we will retain the same views of the world and the same sensations that we have now - and therefore we accept short-sighted decisions.
The term itself came up withG. Loewenstein, T. O'Donoghue, M. Rabin. Projection bias in predicting the future utility / UC Berkeley economists George Loewenstein, Ted O'Donoghue and Matthew Rabin. A classic example of projection distortion is shopping on an empty stomach. In this state, we buy much more food than we actually need. This happens because we subconsciously assume that the feeling of hunger will last for several more hours. However, it is worth coming home, eating hearty soup and drinking a cup of tea, as we understand that three additionally purchased desserts were clearly superfluous.
What causes distortion due to projection
External influence
Projection bias can arise because we do not realize how much uncontrollable factors affect the decision-making process.
During one researchM. Conlin, T. O'Donoghue, T. J. Vogelsang. Projection bias in catalog orders / The American Economic Review The scientists observed how the weather influenced people's decision to buy a winter coat and the decision to keep or return a new thing after purchase. Oddly enough, the weather conditions were significant in both cases. Customers were more likely to purchase coats on cold days and return purchases if it got warmer after delivery.
Of course, people didn't think about the weather consciously. But this study demonstrates how factors we don't even think about can dramatically change our solutions.
Re-evaluation of the significance of events
When we encounter life-changing events, we think that they will have a major impact on our lives. Imagine that you have received a big lottery win. How happy would this news make you? How long would your happiness last? Of course, the absence of problems with money will cheer you up for a long time. So right? Not really.
Researchers collectedP. Brickman, D. Coates, et al. Lottery winners and accident victims: Is happiness relative? / Journal of Personality and Social Psychology of people who won an average of $480,000 in the lottery and asked the winners to rate how happy they were. These results were compared with those of the control group. It turned out that a year after the victory, the level of happiness of the favorites of fortune little different from the level of happiness of ordinary people. In addition, in contrast to the study participants from the control group, lottery winners received less pleasure from everyday activities. Thus, the belief that a large amount of money will solve all problems is another example of distortion due to projection.
The intensity of emotions
We often make decisions based on our emotional state. When we are calm, it is easier for us to remain rational and think rationally. However, bright and strong emotions make us act impulsively.
Imagine a couple who decide to get married two weeks after they met. These people succumbed to the emotional impulse. But the love and passion that peculiar the beginning of almost every novel, led them to a short-sighted decision. Most likely, in a few months, when emotions subside, the partners will regret their choice.
How not to be distorted by projection
We usually schedule tasks for the day during recreation. At this moment, it seems to us that we will definitely have time to hold three meetings, finish the project we have been working on for a whole year, and go to the gala in the evening. However, by the middle of the day we realize that we seriously overestimated our strength. Therefore, first we have to choose what we still have time to do, and then look for internal resources so as not to collapse from fatigue.
Unfortunately, understanding how projection distortion works doesn't always help you avoid it. But its effect can be significantly weakened with a few simple methods.
Monitor "emotional temperature"
Sometimes we get caught up in stress and anxiety and lose the ability to make informed decisions. When you need to deal with a particular issue, take a moment to check your "emotional temperature". Perhaps you are "burning" with anger and overly impulsive. Or vice versa, they are “cold” and indifferent to their future. Try to equalize the emotional state or postpone the decision until better times.
be calm
If action is not required right now, give yourself time to calm down. Even if it takes hours or weeks. This will make right choicethat you won't regret.
study yourself
Track your energy levels throughout the week. At the end of each day ask yourself:
- When did I feel most energetic?
- When did I start feeling tired?
- Have I been able to work effectively when I was tired?
- Would it be better if I took care of business at another time?
Each of us has our own The biological clockand they don't always work from 9:00 to 18:00. When you find your rhythm, you will not only be able to manage your energy better and work productively, but you will also know when it is worth making important decisions and when not.
Now that you know how projection distortion works, it will be easier for you to avoid falling into the trap of thinking that makes it seem like your present needs are a perfect match for your future needs. Also, don't forget what cognitive distortion affects not only you, but also the people around you - friends, family and colleagues.
Read also🧐
- 5 Cognitive Biases That Kill Determination
- How to beat decision fatigue
- 7 Ways to Protect Yourself from Thinking Traps When Making Decisions