Trends and events in February that investors should pay attention to

What should an investor look out for

In January 2022, experts fearedDaily Markets: How Much Will Omicron Affect the Economy? / Nasdaq Marketsthat the omicron strain, due to its high infectivity, can greatly affect the economy. However, the next surge in the incidence does not seem to lead to long lockdowns and supply problems, and in February the exchanges will endure the new wave quite calmly.

There will be no significant changes in the market for microcircuits and semiconductors. They are still in short supply, prices are rising, and satisfied producers are improving their financial forecasts. And large technology companies are actively are investedIntel can't even grow profits during a global chip shortage—where did it all go wrong? / The Conversation

in their own factories, so as not to depend on enterprises on the other side of the world.

In February, other trends come to the fore - here they are.

1. The cheap money is running out

Inflation is growing rapidly throughout the world, so developed countries are beginning to fight it and increase key rates. Thus, the US Federal Reserve System (in fact, the American analogue of the Central Bank) plans to raise the percentage at least four times this year. Upcoming analytics upgrade are waitingFederal Reserve points to interest rate hike coming in March / CNBC in the middle of March. Around the same time, rates will rise in other major economies.

The higher the key rate, the harder it is for investors and companies to raise money. For this reason, the growth in the value of shares should slow down. Already now, stock markets have corrected slightly - they fell by 5-15%, this is the largest decline in the largest indices from spring 2020. Investors are waiting for rates to rise doubtNasdaq 100 Notches Best Two‑Day Rally Since 2020: Markets Wrap / Bloombergthat companies will be able to increase profits at the same pace, so they get rid of unreliable assets.

The actions of the investor, as usual, depend on strategies: investment horizon, risk tolerance, availability of free money and other factors. If a person wants to buy shares of promising companies cheaper and forget about them for a few years, February may be the right month. If stability is more important for an investor portfolio, then he should think about selling "growth stocks", that is, securities of communication, financial and technology companies. In times of high rates, "value stocks" perform best: consumer goods, utilities, energy. AND bonds with alternative assets.

2. Logistics crisis continues

For more than a year now, a serious problem for the global economy has been disruptions in global supply chains. First, due to outbreaks of coronavirus, the largest seaports were closed, then in the Suez Canal stuckThe Suez Canal ship is not the only thing clogging global trade / Euler Hermes container ship, and then there was a new wave of covid. And now there are not enough ships, containers and workers, so queues are constantly lining up in ports, and the price of unloading has skyrocketed several times.

In February, the situation may worsen due to the Chinese New Year. Experts are waitingShippers wary of container shortages as China nears Lunar New Year holiday / Supply Chain Quarterly repetition of last year's problems in this period.

High traffic load is beneficial for some companies. February will be profitableWinners and losers emerge from lingering US supply chain crisis / Financial Times for logistics operators, sea carriers and major ports. And also for cargo air and railway companies, which will receive part of the deliveries.

Almost everyone else will have a harder time: firms lack finished goods, materials, products and a bunch of other things that get stuck along the way. However, this is unlikely to have a strong impact on stocks: due to bad news, the value of securities falls slightly, but then recovers. But final goods are becoming more expensive - inflation is only accelerating.

3. Oil rises in price

At the end of January, the most popular Brent oil roseThe price of Brent oil rose to a new high in seven years / RBC Investments to a seven-year high, above $91 per barrel. Now the price has fallen a little, but it is possible that a new ascent will begin within a month. Already by July-August, it can break through 100-105 dollars per barrel, thinkOil to breach $100 a barrel later this year—Goldman Sachs/Reuters analysts at Goldman Sachs investment bank.

Experts attribute what is happening to the not so strong damage from the omicron, problems with supply chains and decisions of large oil producers. The latter are called the OPEC+ cartel. Last summer, the member states of the association agreed not to increase oil production, but even to reduce it slightly. The decision remains in force, but demand has not gone away - there is not enough fuel, so prices are rising.

In such a situation, oil companies and countries benefit the most. The higher the prices now, the higher the expectations that are laid down in the contracts. This means more profits and taxes. It is still possible to make money on fossil fuels, but perhaps this is one of the last chance.

4. The Russian stock market is unstable

For two weeks, the iMOEX index of the Moscow Exchange lost 16.5%. It's not yetbear market”, but quite a correction territory, which starts from -10%. So in February, an investor should be especially careful to look closely at the securities of Russian companies.

Due to the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank, it is more difficult for firms to take loans and invest in their development. And because of this, foreign investors are not so interested in buying shares of Russian companies. Professionals calledThe Russian stock market has experienced the largest collapse since the start of the pandemic / BBC News and another reason - geopolitical tensions that scare the stock markets.

Who will pay dividends

Russian enterprises have either already done this in January, or will only start in March-April. But dividends will be actively paid by foreign companies, whose shares can be bought on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange.

When analyzing securities, it is important not to forget about the dividend gap. When the firm pays dividends, the quotes of its shares fall by the amount of the payment. We gave a dollar a share - the price dropped by a dollar. This is normal and you shouldn't be scared.

Who will report financial results

Based on recent financial results, you can calculate multipliers and evaluate the state of the business - and decide whether it is interesting to invest in it. And also financial statements affects the price of securities. Moreover, it is important to match the forecasts. For example, analysts expectYahoo Finance Analysis—EPS Trend Alphabet's EPS of $108.76. If the company surpasses the preliminary estimates, then its shares will rise in price. And if they don’t make it, they may fall a little - or a lot, you won’t guess here.