What is futurology and what future might await us
Miscellaneous / / August 01, 2021
If you're lucky, you won't have to work in a few decades. Or, on the contrary, we will become slaves of artificial intelligence.
What is futurology
This is a disciplineJ. J. O'Toole. Futurology / Britannica, which, based on the trends of the modern world, is trying to predict the future of humanity. Futurology cannot be fully considered a science, if only because hypotheses about future events cannot be verified experimentally.
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Futurologists are often criticized and compared to science fiction writers and charlatans, but the discipline is taughtMaster of Arts in Futures Studies / Freie Universität Berlin in some Western universities. The representatives of the direction themselves do not deny that their methods are imperfect. But they say that the methods of prediction are improving, which means that predictions will become more accurate.
For example, in the past, futurists mainly relied on the humanities and predicted the future based on subjective impressions. But over time, data analysis, statistics and the results of the latest scientific experiments began to be used for forecasts. For example, Big Data is used to determineO. Reyes, H. M. Fardoun, S. Ventura. An ensemble ‑ based method for the selection of instances in the multi ‑ target regression problem / Integrated Computer Aided Engineering trends in the development of agriculture.
Why not every prediction can be considered futurological
To name the result of a football match or upcoming elections is not a futurological forecast. But to assume the resettlement of people to another planet, the widespread spread of a new type of transport or a global catastrophe - yes.
Futurologists make predictions based on historical knowledge, as well as information about the current situation. In essence, such people are engaged in extrapolation - spreading observations of the present and the past into the future. This is how experts try to identify alternatives and ways by which the most favorable results can be obtained.
How futurology is used
Many predictions have come true. For example, the emergence of mobile communications or the development of a modern post-industrial society, when the economy is more based on services and intellectual labor than on industry.
Knowing about the possible options for the development of events helps to better prepare for them. That is why, for example, politicians and businessmen often turn to futurists.
To determine the vector of state development
Even in the last century, some futurologists predicted a global ecological catastrophe. Those world leaders worried about this forecast acceptDelivering the European Green Deal / European Comission reduction laws waste and harmful emissions into the atmosphere, as well as the rejection of the use of fossil fuels. In turn, the leaders of countries whose economies largely depend on the sale of energy resources should look for new options for generating income.
To assess business prospects
This helps to develop company policy, identify growth points and insure against potential losses. For example, in the 1970s, Shell created a dedicated strategic team to predict a wide variety of events that could affect corporate profits. So, the futurists of the oil giant considered one of the possible factors that could affect the price of oil.Earlier scenarios / Shell crash socialist systems.
There are in-house futurologists 1. J. Letzing. Google Hires Famed Futurist Ray Kurzweil / The Wall Street Journal
2. The Journey of Crystal / Swarovski
3. Volovo CE Partners with Professional Futurists and Students to Present Visions of a Possible Future / Volvo CE
4. Who are Dell Futurists / Dell India from Google, Swarovski, Volovo, Dell. Other companies resort toFuture of the workplace 2030+ / unily to the services of special agencies such as Kjaer Global.
To predict changes in everyday life
This helps, for example, when choosing a profession or investing. So, it is clear that in the coming decades, the IT and high-precision industry will become more and more important. This means that investments in them, including through their own education, are fully justified.
Conversely, with the development of technology, it becomes clear that some sectors of the economy will change dramatically. For example, in the near future they may disappear profession a driver, a taxi dispatcher or a cashier, as has already happened with train stokers, typists and car assemblers.
What future, according to futurologists, can await us
In their predictions, futurists usually adhere toAND. AND. Kravchenko. Futurology / New Encyclopedia of Philosophy pessimistic or optimistic scenarios. The first assumes that humanity will face a radical change in culture, lifestyle and consciousness due to environmental, technological, demographic and military disasters. The second is also based on the assumption that people's lives will change. But for another reason - we will be able to create other prosperous societies.
Here are some of the futuristic predictions.
The emergence of smart clothes and food
This will save people from having to go shopping and restaurants. The smart suit will adjust the shape and color according to the preference of the wearer. As food they will useS. Oppenheim. Could This Be A Solution To The Obesity Epidemic: Food In A Pill / Forbes small tablets that can change the taste and contain enough calories and vitamins.
Building a society where people no longer need to work
According to another concept, robots canIN. WITH. Smolin. Human Perspectives in the Era of Technological Singularity / Epistemology and Philosophy of Science take on all physical labor instead of a person. So people will be freed from the need to constantly work, and all goods and services will become cheaper. After that, we will only have to receive unconditional income and engage in exclusively intellectual work.
Replacing money with a rating of good deeds
Some go further and assume that as technology advances, money will no longer be needed. They will be replaced by a rating of good deeds. This may sound like science fiction, but certain steps are already being taken. So, in China developedC. Teh. ‘Every smile you fake’ - an AI emotion ‑ recognition system can assess how ‘happy’ China’s workers are in the office / Business Insider emotion recognition systems. They can, for example, be used to reward benevolent people and to prevent conflict and suicide. However, so far all this causes only fears in the spirit of totalitarian dystopias.
Moving away from paper documents in favor of digital
Some futurists generally believeDigital identification: A key to inclusive growth / McKinsey Global Institutethat everyone will soon be required to have a digital ID. Already today, such electronic documents, for example, an account on "Public services»Greatly simplify the life of their owners. And in Estonia, the entire document flow is gradually being transferrede ‑ Identity / e ‑ Estonia to digital.
The death of classical education and the offline personality
Along with the development of neurointerfaces, training will significantly accelerateM. H. Miraz; M. Ali, P. S. Excell et al. A review on Internet of Things (IoT), Internet of Everything (IoE) and Internet of Nano Things (IoNT) / 2015 Internet Technologies and Applications (ITA). Knowledge will be loaded directly into the head or even become useless due to instant access to any information “from the brain”. You can also upload your identity to the Internet. As a result, online counterparts will appear. They, for example, will be able to conduct appointments instead of real doctors who will rest at home.
Exacerbating inequality and social conflict
Progress is not going smoothly. For example, when the London Underground opened, many other countries did not yet have railways. Technological advances also unevenly reach different segments of the population.
For example, at first, bionic prostheses or advanced disease treatments will only be available to the wealthy. It can aggravateC. Owen-Jackson. Reaching the technological singularity: What will happen when machines become smarter than us? / Kaspersky Secure Features Blog inequality and lead to new social conflicts. Discontent will grow, and with it the spread of radical ideas. This, of course, will not lead to anything good.
Creation of info colonies by large states
In the past, powerful powers took over weak countries and turned them into colonies. In the future, perhaps states will do the same, but with the help of information, not armies.
The emergence of AI superior to humans
According to this scenario, we will lose control of technological progress. Artificial intelligence will beA. Potapov. Technological Singularity: What Do We Really Know? / Information develop much faster than a human and will soon be able to surpass us. That being said, it is not at all necessary that a smart AI will become a good AI. If the artificial intelligence learns to set goals for itself, it will be very difficult to predict them. It may happen that he startsY. N. Harari. Yuval Noah Harari on what the year 2050 has in store for humankind / WIRED control us. And, perhaps, do it secretly. Then people will no longer understand which decision the algorithms made for them, and which they themselves.
The rapid development of AI will lead to other interesting consequences. For example, a resistance movement of robotization may occur. But the opposite extreme is also permissible: the emergence of people who worship artificial intelligence.
Why futurists can be wrong
Don't worry if some predictions scare you. They don't always come true, and here's why.
The future is not straight and ambiguous
Events that have not yet occurred mayT. BUT. Shmyrina. Futurology as a Science and as a prediction (socio-philosophical aspect) / Bulletin of the Tambov University. Series: Humanities unfold in a variety of ways. This is partly why futurists usually do not limit themselves to one forecast, but describe several possible options. But this does not always help. After all, a number of factors have to be taken into account: social, technological, economic, environmental and political.
Some things are impossible to foresee
There are many unexpected events in the world - the so-called "black swans"N. N. Taleb. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable / The New York Times. Nobody expected them, but they happened and had global consequences. For example, the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand led to The first world war, and the collapse of the USSR - by the end of the cold. As the creator of the term "black swan" Nassim Taleb says, we are trying to predict the price of oil 30 years ahead, not knowing what it will be next summer.
The coronavirus pandemic has also become a kind of "black swan", although, for example, Bill Gates predicted B. Gates. A new outbreak of the epidemic? We're not ready for it / TED her back in 2015.
Extrapolation does not always work
It is limited by the conditions of the moment.
For example, in the 1950s, futurists believedT. BUT. Shmyrina. Futurology as a Science and as a prediction (socio-philosophical aspect) / Bulletin of the Tambov University. Series: Humanitiesthat at the beginning of the XXI century, interplanetary tourism will become commonplace, and computers will not be popular. This is because the space industry was booming, and mechanical computing seemed to be able to meet all the needs of people.
Prediction is influenced by the personality of the predictor
Futurology is not devoid of subjectivity. In many ways, therefore, discipline cannot be considered a rigorous science. For example, Herbert Wells predicted the creation of the European Union and globalization even before the advent of futurology at the beginning of the 20th century. But at the same time, the writer did not believeF. M. Turner. Public Science in Britain 1880-1919 / Contesting Cultural Authority: Essays in Victorian Intellectual Lifethat humanity will achieve great success in aviation and the construction of submarines. The famous science fiction writer believed that height and speed would make people dizzy.
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