Vladimir Putin addressed the people. We analyze what to prepare for

President Vladimir Putin made an address to the Russians. In it he suggested package of measuresto contain the spread of the coronavirus, support people and businesses in a difficult economic situation. In fact, not everything is so simple.

Holidays declared, not quarantine

The week from March 28 to April 5 will be closed. Obviously, this is done so that people who cannot work remotely provide themselves with self-isolation. At the same time, no bans on movement around the city have been introduced. Consequently, the effect can be exactly the opposite: good weather and the Russian "maybe", for which urged not to rely on the president, they will bring out into the street even those who have already switched to a calm and protected remote.

But it's not only that. A week off employees must be paid in full, and this is quite a big blow to the business. A week is a long time, 25% of a month. Those who are already struggling to make ends meet will have to stop working and lose income. And also find money to pay non-working employees. So this measure is clearly not a lifeline for a drowning man, but rather a weight tied to his leg. There is no talk of compensation from the budget yet.

Tax deferral will only postpone financial collapse

As compensation for the "inconvenience", businesses are offered a deferral of all taxes excluding VAT, and for micro-enterprises - also on insurance premiums. The postponement is not an exemption, so after six months the companies will still be asked for debt.

Probably, in a super-optimistic scenario, everything would be rosy. In two months the situation will return to normal, the economy will recover for two months, and for another two months it will show unprecedented growth. In this case, the organization will not only have time to recover, but also accumulate surpluses, and therefore easily distribute debts.

The chances for such a development of events, frankly, are small.

Coronavirus pandemic will decline in summer according to optimistic forecastsThe expert told when the coronavirus pandemic in Russia will decline. But for the economy to recover, people need to be unafraid, content and solvent. Which is hardly possible against the backdrop of rising currencies, forecasts for lower incomes and rising unemployment.

Reducing insurance premiums will not increase salaries

Solution to reduce size insurance premiums from 30 to 15% looks more useful for companies. As follows from the president's speech, this measure is being introduced "on a long-term basis," so that employers have an incentive to raise workers' wages. But this looks utopian. Rather, such a measure will help enterprises reduce the burden on the budget.

This is how things are now. Let's say an employee is paid a salary of 20 thousand rubles. After deducting personal income tax, he receives 17,400 rubles. At the same time, the employer transfers to compulsory pension and medical insurance, as well as social insurance, the same 30% - 6 thousand rubles. That is, the employee costs him 26 thousand rubles. Now this amount will be reduced to 23 thousand.

Probably, according to the plan, the employer should continue to spend 26 thousand: 23 thousand for the employee (20 010 for hands), 3 thousand for insurance premiums. You don't have to be a genius of economics to understand that it is unlikely that this will happen. Moreover, in the current environment.

Help only those who are very bad

Some measures to support the population look promising, although they will only help those whose financial situation is completely deplorable. For example, the decision to prolong all social benefits and benefits for six months will automatically help to avoid queues at the social security authorities and save people from unnecessary headaches.

The decision to change the calculation of sick leave could be an effective measure not only of financial support, but also of the fight against coronavirus. Now payments depend on the size of the salary and the official length of service. As a result, people often go to work sick so as not to lose money. Now they propose to calculate sick leave payments based on the minimum wage - 12 130 rubles.

The new calculation method will be a salvation only for people with low incomes. For the rest, it is still more profitable to go to work sick.

The situation is similar with the unemployment. The President said literally the following: “The maximum unemployment benefit payment is limited to 8 thousand rubles a month. I suggest increasing it to the level of the minimum wage, that is, up to 12,130 rubles. " That is, you cannot receive more than this amount, but less, it turns out, you can. Now the minimum is 1.5 thousand rubles.

The source of additional payments for children is not clear

Not everything is clear with payments for children. In the speech of the president it was said: “I propose in the next three months, starting from April, to pay all families with the right to maternity capital, an additional 5 thousand rubles per month for each child under the age of three inclusive".

The clarification about the parent capital looks suspicious here. Now families with two children or with one if he was born in 2020 have the right to him. Therefore, families with a baby born on December 31, 2019 cannot apply for support. Again, it is possible that the money will be paid not in addition, but from the maternity capital. This is already done with the monthly allowance for poor families, if it is allocated for the second child.

Mortgage Holidays Existed Before

Finally, there are credit holidays. Postponement on mortgage you could get it before the president's speech. The relevant law provides for a 30% decrease in income as the reason for this. As for consumer loans, it is unclear how this will be organized and how it will backfire for banks (and then for their clients). Now Russians owe banks 17.5Information on loans provided to individuals - residents in rubles and foreign currency trillion rubles. So, if at least half of the debtors decide to get an extension, the consequences can be unpredictable.

What is the result

1. Judging by the announced dates, the authorities expect the situation to improve in six months. But, of course, no one can guarantee this.
2. Support measures for the population will affect only those who will be very bad. Those who just feel bad will have to survive on their own.
3. Business is not easy now, and in six months it will be even worse, because deferrals and a moratorium on filing applications of creditors for bankruptcy of companies and collection of debts and fines will end.
4. If you do not intend to lose your job and want to support your company, it is better to spend this vacation working for a better future. However, even if you hate your employer, it won't be easy to find a new one, so it's best to take care of saving this one.
5. The coronavirus will spread, all current measures are aimed at containing, not preventing, the disease.
6. It will get worse, but you hold on. It will definitely get better one day.