How fast would you have run a marathon

Online calculator Predicted Marathon Time will tell how much time you will go to 42 kilometers, regardless of gender, age, anthropometric data and training. Calculation justified profound theoretical basis.

In September 2014 a Kenyan Dennis Kipruto Kimetto (Dennis Kimetto) ran the Berlin marathon in 2:02:57. Record for women owned by the British runner field Radcliffe (Paula Radcliffe), who struck London his 2:15:25 in 2003. Professional athletes soberly assess the greatness of these achievements, but the fans are unlikely. The bar will feel online calculator Predicted Marathon Time. He will calculate your potential outcome, then you will appreciate the chasm between himself and the best athletes of the world.

How does Predicted Marathon Time

In 1981, an American research engineer Peter Riegel (Peter Riegel) introduced a mathematical formula to predict the duration of the run on the basis of previous achievements. The formula is widely used due to its simplicity and sufficient accuracy.

T₂ = T₁ × (D₂ ÷ D₁)^1,06

Variables formula denote:

• T₁ - the time spent on the passage distance D₁;
• T₂ - the projected time for the passage of a distance D₂;
• D1 - distance that the athlete formerly held for the time T₁;
• D2 - the distance that the athlete intends to overcome for the required time T₂.

A little later, Peter Rigel clarified that the formula is applicable to physical activity lasting 3.5 to 230 minutes. In this case, it is suitable for running, swimming and walking speed.

Decades passed, and the author's opinion was shared by specialized Internet resources. They pointed out that the level of 1.06 gives unattainable predictions for long distances. For adjustment took Andrew Vickers formula (Andrew Vickers) - known researcher in the field of cancer, and graduate Cambridge University of Oxford, avid runner.

Andrew Vickers turned to its subscribers, so that they fill out a short questionnaire about the last race and the other conjugated information. We responded to the request of 2497 respondents, through which the scientist and his colleague Emily Vertozik (Emily Vertosick) improved formula in 2014.

The comparison showed that the version of Peter Rigel is perfect for distances up to half marathon, but in half of cases gives failures for 10 minutes at a long range. Of course, this is a big problem for professional runners, who meticulously plan the pace of the race. The error can lead to exhaustion long before the finish tape.

Peter Riegel formula has been modeled on the basis of a world record at that time, so the idea suggests itself that it should not be used for non-professionals. Moreover, the fans are very different from each other by their endurance. For example, one person can master a 5K pace 5:20 per kilometer, and 10K - with the rate of 5:30 per kilometer. Second runner due to natural ability to lose more and show on the top ten pace 5:40. This factor greatly limits the accuracy of the generalized algorithms.

It is clear that the formula Andrew Vickers in this respect, too, there were problems: the sample of respondents was not accidental. However, the researchers did not plan to retreat and re-finalized formula. They repeated the survey and added additional parameters in it. For example, runners appreciated its shape on a scale.

Then profiles divided into two packs: one based on the specified formula, and based on the second - tested its performance. Accuracy was high.

In parallel, Andrew Vickers singled out a couple of interesting facts:

• Runners who are engaged interval training, 3% faster than those who neglect them.
• On the women 5K run slower men by 20%, for the marathon this difference is already 10%. By the way, elite runners dispersion varies from 10 to 12.5% ​​at all distances.

Finally, knocked out all the facts, Andrew Vickers and Emily Vertozik came to the conclusion that the average weekly mileage and time of the previous race - the most faithful indicators in the calculation of the duration of the marathon. The latest version of the formula is just them and repelled.

How to count with Predicted Marathon Time

Go to online calculator Predicted Marathon Time and enter a couple of values: the number of miles you run per week, the length of the last long run, its character and time. The algorithm then displays the projected result in the marathon, and will indicate the error. Enter information about another workout that the site has adjusted the final time.

In conclusion, we draw your attention that the formula is more designed for those who diligently preparing for a marathon and running the appropriate distance. But no one bothers to dream and those who osilivaet "mate" only in a dream. Maybe look into the abyss, you will want to be a little faster and sturdier.

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