What happens if you block Telegram

What is the probability of blocking the access to the Telegram in Russia?

Fifty-fifty: either block or not. It is worth noting that such precedents have occurred. For example, in Russia blocked access to Zello radio in connection with protests or truck, for example, LinkedIn.

How can it be implemented this ban?

The ban can be performed in different ways. Firstly, the messenger may be subject to blocking on IP-addresses, but Telegram in this regard is quite convenient structure: it can forward requests. Also, most likely, the corresponding application will be removed from the App Store and Google Play. In general, the technical measures to restrict access so many and not the fact that all of them will be taken. But judging by the scale information attack on the Telegram, the lock will be on all fronts.

Who needs a lock Telegram?

It is understood that the supervisory and law enforcement agencies, there are dozens of camps, who have their own opinion about the appropriateness of banning access to instant messengers. There are people in the presidential administration, opposing locks have security agencies that are really annoyed by technical problems with access to communications in the Telegram. You can not write off the mobile operators who lose precious traffic and revenues due to the proliferation of services provided by messengers, in particular Telegram.

Why Telegram blocking issue in Russia rose sharply right now?

It so happened that the interests of the above camps have converged, and the various departments began consolidating order to "rub out" messenger. Pavel Durov, if I remember correctly, back in 2015 said that the faster Telegram will gain popularity in Russia, the faster it will block. Obviously, a critical mass of users have already been recruited, and has reached a critical level of dissatisfaction degree of oversight agencies.

We have made every effort to prevent such a development (Fedor fought for signing petition, Converted to Pavel Durov, a month ago. - Approx. Ed.). I was hoping that if it does not save the situation, at least, delay lock at least until the end of the year. But as they say, not fartanulo. Although the absolute confidence in the implementation of the ban yet.

How Telegram blocking effect on the number of channels of an audience?

About 30% Telegram audience will continue to use the service with the help of various Bypass. About the same projections and channels. It will happen at once: reducing the number of users to a mark of 30% will take place in a couple of months. Similar happened to Rutracker, however, there is the audience subsided after about a year.

Many channels are reformatted for foreign audiences. We are in a chat room with the administrators Telegram-communities are discussing the prospects of working with Iran (Telegram - one of the main popular media in Iran, it is used by about 40 million people. - Approx. Ed.). All that is needed for this reorientation, - good interpreters, which is quite a lot. Many channels are publishing a universal content that is relevant in many countries in addition to Russia.

Telegram first leave those who have recently come to him. Significantly reduced the audience entertainment and media community channels "VKontakte", duplicate publication of the social network in the Telegram. Professional content distributors will suffer less: the lock will return them to the state half a year ago, but do not drown. Also, it is not going anywhere recently appeared in the Telegram ecosystem political media: they are broadcast on the advanced part of the audience that is familiar with the methods of circumvention of locks.

Is able to lock Telegram harm business in Russia?

Harm blocking messenger for minimal business. Companies that are operating in the communication Telegram, without any loss migrate to the same Slack or WhatsApp. Blocking can undermine the work unless small businesses that have made major bets on the Telegram.

Where to go anywhere audience Telegram?

As I said earlier, after locking in the Telegram will be 30% of the current audience. These 30% are unevenly distributed: those who use messenger seriously, retaining most of the contacts, Unlike less advanced users, whose environment is unlikely to be bother with bypass paths lock.

The audience will move to other messengers: Viber, WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger. But I would bet on WhatsApp. I do not think the popularity will enjoy the services provided by the same service as the Telegram, such as TamTam, presented his system of canals.

Companies using Telegram working in communications, mass-migrate to other messengers: it is easier, than to explain to each employee how to configure VPN and download missing in Russian stores application.

What are the messengers following fall under the sight of Roskomnadzor?

The answer to this question is the same as the previous in many ways. WhatsApp and Viber long been in the sights of Roskomnadzor, they are not registered in the register of information dissemination organizers. Law enforcement agencies will focus on the messengers, which could potentially be used by terrorists.

And what messengers are the terrorists?

Terrorists are the same as everyone else. Conspiracy takes place rather on language level, rather than at the level of the technical means. But there is, for example, or the Signal Threema, which are considered to be more secure than the same Telegram.

What if Telegram block on all fronts?

If the application is removed from the store, you'll need to use the account that is linked to another region. As I recall, this was the instruction and Layfhakere (instructions App Store and google Play. - Approx. Ed.). When locked IP-addresses have to use workarounds using VPN and Proxy Servers. What to do if a bill to forbid circumvention of locks will be extended? Go out, I guess.

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