Why do we overestimate their abilities and what that means

We all tend to think that we have the talent above average. "Of course, I quickly cope with the task," "I would be easily answered questions, if I were in his place" - sure you have at least sometimes had similar thoughts.

This is a very common phenomenon. Thus, in one survey, more than 70% of drivers saidAre ALL Minnesotans Above Average?That they more closely the average motorist. And this is due to a mistake of thinking, as the effect of overconfidence.

What are the effects

The effect of overconfidence - a tendency to overestimate their knowledge and skills, to consider themselves better than others. It applies to all skills and attributes: you can consider yourself a witty, friendly, honest, integrity of others. Or believe that you have a lot chance of successWhen in reality it is not so.

This phenomenon is also called Lake Uobegon effect - the name given in honor of the fictional town of the popular American radio performance. In Lake Uobegone "all the women are strong, the men - attractive, and the children have abilities above average."

Overconfidence usually manifestsThe Three Faces of Overconfidence in three ways:

• You overestimate their own capabilities. You are convinced that you have enough skills to do the work that you have enough control of the situation. This distortion often involves complex tasks that have a high probability of failure.
• Do you think that is superior to another. That is, you believe that your skills are above average or better than others. Usually this manifests itself when working with tasksWhich, in your opinion, do not require much effort.
• You unreasonably confident in the correctness of their judgments. This aspect relates to the assessment of any problems.

What is its cause

Exposure to this effect varies in different cultures. There is a hypothesis that it is more pronounced in countries with high levels of economic inequality. In 2011, psychologists testedEconomic Inequality Is Linked to Biased Self-Perception it polled 1600 members. Among them were representatives of 15 nations from the five continents, mostly students. Participants had to assess the traits from the list by answering two questions: "How much for you characterized by this trait as compared to the average person? "and" How desirable for you this hell? ".

The survey showed that people from countries with high levels of economic inequality (Peru, South Africa, USA), often considered themselves better than others. And participants from countries where incomes are roughly equal (Belgium, Germany, Japan), less often overestimate themselves.

Scientists have not yet managed to explain the reason for this relationship. They believe that it can be in the spirit of competition, which increases the economic inequality in others. In a situation where wealth is distributed very unevenly, and you need to work with good salaryLogically discard modesty and present themselves as a human, which compares favorably with the others.

Than it is dangerous and how to protect yourself

overconfidence effect is called one of the most common and potentially dangerous errors of thinking. Perhaps it was he who provokes lawsuits, war and the stock market crash.

For example, when the plaintiff and the defendant are equally convinced of their rightness and goodness, tightenedEgocentric Interpretations of Fairness and Interpersonal Conflict trials. When States convinced of the superiority of their armies, increasesOverconfidence and War: The Havoc and Glory of Positive Illusions their willingness to unleash military action. When market participants too appreciate the action, it increases the likelihood of more risky tradesInvestor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions. The same effect is often the cause of ruin companies, the failure of projects and failure predictions.

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Do not forget that your judgments about their own skills and chances of success are very subjective. Do not rely on them blindly, to calculate the probability of a negative outcome. And when building plansKeep in mind that you can fall into the trap of thinking.