How myths are born small and personal superstitions
Forming / / December 19, 2019
I love buckwheat, and her husband and son - Fig. At the girlfriend in a similar family preferences: they love with the daughter of buckwheat, and her husband - rice. We conclude that men like rice, buckwheat and women prefer. We start looking for the cause and find it: in buckwheat more iron, and women are more in need of this trace, because losing it during menstruation. All conclusions are made, a myth was born.
After some time, we understand that this is nonsense. Love of porridge is not determined by gender. Our sample consisted of six people, one of which is just a child pereel buckwheat.
What led us to draw conclusions based on such unreliable data? The law of small numbers - a cognitive distortion that a breakneck pace, domestic breeds mythology.
We tried one case
The law of small numbersBelief in the law of small numbers - this is when you think of an individual case can be judged on the situation as a whole. A good example of such an error in the scientific community - Mozart effect. In 1993, a researcher discovered Rauscher
The Mozart effectThat listening to a Mozart sonata K448 improves spatial reasoning.First he tested the effect of 36 studentsMusic and spatial task performance.And a few years later he repeated the experiment involving 24 childrenMusic training causes long-term enhancement of preschool children's spatial-temporal reasoning. 3-4 years. In all his experiments, the effect of Mozart's Sonatas was significant. The public took up scientific news and the news spread that this music can make a child smarter.
In 2010, a meta-analysisMozart effect - Shmozart effect: A meta-analysis 40 scientific studies have shown that if the effect exists, it is weak. And no one, except the Rauscher, found no strong link between children's successes and sonatas by Mozart.
Such errors are found not only in the scientific community. We are constantly carried out similar to ordinary life, overgrown with myths and superstitions.
Grandfather smoked all his life and lived to be 80, and a non-smoker friend died of cancer at 50. Conclusion: smoking is not harmful. I was born on Wednesday, the same day of the week won the lottery and once found a wallet on the street with the money. Conclusion: Wednesday - my lucky day, and now everything important should be planned only on him.
It sounds silly and illogical, but in fact there is a serious reason why we make decisions that way.
Why do we see a connection where they are not
Specialist in cognitive errors psychologist Daniel Kahneman (Daniel Kahneman) arguedBelief in the law of small numbersThat people exaggerate the connection between the events.
This type of thinking can be explained in terms of survival. If you do not see the relationship between perturbation of the bushes and attack of a predator, it eats you. False connection does not have such tragic consequences: having escaped from a nonexistent predator, you'll at least stay alive.
Since this feature is useful for survival, it is firmly entrenched in our behavior.
The human mind is sharpened by a cause-and-effect relationships that we love since childhood logical and complete stories and prefer to ignore the possibility of the case. The case can not be predicted and controlled, so that it is better to forget about it, not to stressovat once again.
Sometimes the love of the cause-effect relationships turn against us: stick makes stupid rituals and do not care about the real danger.
How not to produce new myths
In science, knowingly used the methods of statistical analysis: they reveal the significance of the event, depending on the size of the sample and changes that have occurred.
Therefore, scientific data, in contrast to the household observations and conclusions, help to find the truth.
For example, do you think that smoking is not harmful, because the old grandfather smokes like a chimney. Sample of one person - not the best material for conclusions. Look scientific research and surveys in which thousands of people participated. Statistics tell the truth.
If, however, no university is not yet interested in your topic - for example, the influence of the day of the week on the progress in interviews- just accept that it may be a coincidence.
Recognizing the power of the case, you will protect yourself from the many disappointments and useless superstition, which can complicate your life.
see also🧐
- 20 cognitive biases that affect your decisions
- Science rituals, why they are needed and how to use them
- What we have not frightened: the strange superstitions from around the world