The trap of thinking: why are we afraid of terrorist attacks, but crossing the road on red light

Cognitive distortion caused by memories prevents us to objectively evaluate reality.

Some we remember facts better than others

Have you heard about the terrorist attack, which claimed the lives of many people. On the tragedy told on all channels, written in all editions, referring to previous similar cases. Now it seems to you that your city terrorist attack may occur at any time.

You avoid crowded places and cautiously out into the street. But at the same time continue to run across the street at a red light, forgetting that the probability of hit by a car is disproportionately higher.

Or another example. You read an article about people who We won the lottery. One day they just bought a ticket, and they were lucky. You start to think that your chances are quite high prize.

In this case, you forget that millions more people participating in the lottery, did not get anything. Such distortions in thinking there all the time.

Existing memories lead to the error of thinking

This error is called the availability heuristic. This intuitive process in which a person evaluates the frequency or possibility of events by how easily recall examples of such events. We use it when you need to make a decision or to evaluate the idea.

The term "availability heuristic" introducedJudgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in 1973. This process takes place unconsciously, and it is based on the principle of "If you think about it, so it's important." What easily comes to mind seems to be more widespread and significant than it actually is.

The problem is that some events are remembered better than others.

Sometimes the case is imprinted in the memory of the novelty or related experiences. Unusual occurrences, such as a terrorist attack or a shark attack on a person, seem to us more important. Therefore, the false impression that they are very common.

And sometimes it is due to the extensive coverage in the press. For example, we hear news about the plane crash and are afraid to fly by plane, although car crashes It happens much more frequently.

researchers have describedAntidepressant Direct-to-Consumer Advertising and Social Perception of the Prevalence of Depression a similar situation with advertising funds from depression. Respondents who frequently heard about antidepressants, remembered more medications. And the thought that depression among the population is common.

Other scientists have shownMemory-Based Store Price Judgments: The Role of Knowledge and Shopping ExperienceThat people use heuristics of availability, even when judged on the pricing policy of the store. The more they think of inexpensive items in it, the higher estimate shop in general.

But cognitive distortions can be avoided

Do not rely on the memories: they are not the best counselor. Trust only the facts. Look for confirmed data, study statistics. Try to remember the counter-examples, and then make a decision. In other words, before you buy a lottery ticket, think about what are the real chances of winning.

If you develop a certain product is not limited to the study of competitors. Suppose, X and Y companies use the same method, but it does not mean that it will help you. take solutions based on the needs of its clients. Perform A / B testing, collect data, obtain feedback from users.

Try not to forget that the brain relies on memory available to him, and study the issue from all sides. The only way to make an objective decision.