Why do not need to listen to successful people

You are no longer the first week of looking for a job, and then your ex-colleague said that settled in great company after learning known programming courses, copywriting, SMM - right emphasize. Encouraged you perfect by the same school, but employers for some reason still do not line up to offer you a place. And judging by the fact that they write in the chat the other graduates, most of them have the same problems, and the lucky ones who managed to find a job immediately profitable rather a rare exception to the general rule. And you and all these people have been the victim of cognitive traps - survivorship bias.

What is the error survivor

In the days of World War II the US military commissionedAbraham Wald's Work on Aircraft Survivability Abraham Wald math to figure out how to reduce the loss of military aircraft. He analyzed what were damaged aircraft returning from raids and where these lesions are localized. Representatives of the Military Commission decided that it is in these areas - for example, in the area of ​​the fuselage and the fuel system - and the need to strengthen the armor of aircraft.

But Wald saw inconsistency in the assumption and said that to strengthen, on the contrary, it is necessary to places where there is no damage. Because the planes with holes in them - for example, in the engine - simply did not return to base.

This cognitive bias in which we consider only successful experience, either intentionally or accidentally leaving out unsuccessfulAbraham Wald called the mistake survivor.

As a survivor error affects our lives

Getting into this trap network, we only see those that somehow managed, but simply do not notice losers. In this case, we are in complete confidence that we consider the whole picture. Due to lack of information or unwillingness to take into account the negative data we do completely wrong conclusions, which lead to frustration, loss and other troubles.

Error survivor and business

everyone loves success stories. He lived his person, like an unremarkable, and then suddenly became a successful athlete, actor or a tycoon, ranked first in the Forbes ranking. And before I succeeded, grew up in a poor family, as an option - school dropouts, the first money earned as a child, selling some stuff. This archetypal story "from rags to riches" we are very encouraged.

We put ourselves in the place of the hero, and believe that our life is also one change. But that's really it happens very rarely, and it's not that someone is not enough work or insufficient clearly set goals.

Billionaire Amancio Ortega, one of the richest men in the world, once servedTop 20 richest people in the world - 2011 messenger in a clothing store, and his empire began with the fact that his wife sewed women's nightgown. Other billionaire, Li Ka-shing, has worked as a childLi Ka-shing in the factory, and then I started selling plastic flowers. Sounds inspiring, if they can, why can not I? But the truth is that millions of Chinese children to work in factories, but did not become rich. We have no idea how many tailors sew to order at home, but in the end for some reason, do not open the garment factories and clothing stores. Indeed, at the hearing, we are just examples of bright, stunning success. And hundreds of thousands of stories about failures - who needs them?

On our quest to eat well, rest well and live a rich life parasitic infobiznesmeny all grades - all these "I raised in the first month on the freelancing 200 thousand, and you can as well "," I ran a successful startup without attachments "," I'm sitting in the decree, but earn more than her husband, engaged in promotion pages Instagram ». And even if all this is true, we must not forget about those who have not been able to do freelance full-time job or went bankrupt trying to start their own businesses. The number of bankruptcies in Russia is growing rapidlyIn Russia, resumed growth in the number of bankruptcies of companies90% of companies and entrepreneurs are closedWithout a website business closes in 3-6 months.

Success is composed of a plurality of factors. Hard work and tenacity - not only its components.

In Russia, 12 million working poorGovernment experts have called the exact number of working poor Russians - that is, people who work, but live in poverty. The chances of success, alas, is not as high as we want to present, and installing "he was able to, and I can" just perfectly illustrates the survivorship bias.

Error survivor and creativity

Everyone knows about the fabulous success stories of celebrities. Before becoming an Oscar-winning actor, Brad Pitt worked as a driver and even toutsBrad Pitt, Chicken Suits, Holding Onto Your Dreams visitors to the restaurant in a chicken suit. Joanne Rowling was a single mother and lived on welfare, and to write the first volume of "Harry Potter", has receivedThe JK Rowling story many failures of the publishers.

You can continue for a long time. Almost every star - the stage, literature, cinema or podium - there is such a story. They make us believe that anyone can succeed, the main thing - the desire and tenacity. But we do not know how many young actors - perhaps not less talented and beautiful than Brad Pitt - every day to pester studios. And we have no idea how many writers have not added in publishing their manuscripts. No one conducts such statistics. And very much in vain, because the error analysis would be more useful than an endless retelling of the success stories. Especially that sometimes they play the main role coincidence and luck.

Error survivor and health

Sometimes we find ourselves in the trap of thinkingBecause they do not possess full information or forget to look at the picture from all sides. In thisSurvivor treatment selection bias and outcomes research: a case study of surgery in infective endocarditis publication the researchers analyzed the cases when doctors decided that surgery - more effective treatment of infective endocarditis than drug therapy. The conclusion was based on survival rates, and proved wrong: researchers initially did not consider remote effects and the fact that patients receiving medication were more serious condition than those who operated.

But it happens, and so that the trap are arranged specially for us. For example, pharmaceutical research companies order medicationsBut publish only positive results. A negative remain in the shadows, because they do not correspond to the interests of producers. And well even if the drug will be simply useless. But we can not know about any side effects or contraindications. For example, several scientific journals refused in 2004Medical journal editors take hard line on drug research publish the results, if the pharmaceutical company is not registered tests since their launch - in this scenario is to hide some information is already problematic. But there is no guarantee that all medical journals in the world is just as fundamental.

Also victims of the trap are those who believe the stories in the spirit of "I cured depression sports, ulcer - vodka, insomnia - St. John's wort." All this - typical illustration of surviving bugs. Or cure.

Error survivor and seals

In 1987 he published an articleHigh-rise syndrome in catsIn which veterinarians wrote that cats that had fallen from a height of less than six floors, survive less than those that have fallen from a great height. The explanation was quite logical: a cat that fell, for example, from the fourth floor, no time to regroup in the air, landed badly and get more serious injury.

later, there wereDo cats always land unharmed on their feet, no matter how far they fall? the assumption that it is not so. The clinic usually are animals that have fallen from 1-5 th floors, and those who fell from the sixth and above, will often find hopeless and left to die. This means that the sample is based solely on was brought to the vet cats unrepresentative.

How to avoid pitfalls

Examples of survivorship bias can be listed for a long time. They are found in all walks of life and lead to delusions and disappointments. Universal way to get around the trap there. But not to become a victim of it, before making important decisions need to look at the problem from different angles. Gather information, analyze, weigh options and make conclusions.

Is it worth investing time and money in the creation of YouTube-channel only because DUD, Sobolev and Sasha Spielberg earnStudy. The richest YouTube-blogger millions on their blogs? Do I need to learn from the course, following the example of several graduates who took to work in large companies? You decide. But to succeed in any business, is always the mistakes losers.