4
Views
1. false figures
When we are talking about statistics and numbers, we usually blindly believe in them, because it seems that everything is counted. Sometimes, however, the figures mask quite implausible information. For example, what do you think about this statement:
All 35 years after it has ceased to operate in California marijuana law, the number of smokers is doubling every year.
It rings true? Let's count. Suppose that 35 years ago in California was only one smoker of marijuana. Of course, this is a very conservative estimate, but we insure.
If this number is doubling every year for 35 years, received 17 billion people - more than the population of the entire globe. This assertion is not that implausible - it is simply impossible.
What to do: if someone operates the figures, this does not mean that he considered everything. Remember school mathematics lessons and add a healthy skepticism. Usually, this is sufficient to bring liar in pure water.
2. part of the truth
Sometimes we tell the truth. But not all. You've heard the phrase:
Four out of five dentists recommend toothpaste Colgate.
It turns out that during the interview the dentists can recommend more than one toothpaste. And, as it turned out, the biggest competitor Colgate recommended almost as often as Colgate - detail that you'll never hear in advertising.
What to do: taking important decisions, look for additional information. Do not believe the facts, even if they seem plausible.
3. doubtful experts
By the word "experts" usually refers to people who have been trained, devoted much time the development of their professional skills and abilities, such as holders of academic degree, pilots, musicians or athletes.
Experts tend to specialize in a very narrow area. In addition, they may be biased.
In the case of tumor oncologist surgeon can designate the operation, the radiation oncologist - irradiation, a oncologist, the therapist - chemotherapy.
Competence is also relative. Einstein was an expert in the field of physics 60 years ago. If he were alive, perhaps, would not be considered such a renowned expert and could not understand what is known today Stephen Hawking and other physicists.
Moreover, experts with similar skills and knowledge do not always agree with each other. Thousands of financial analysts do completely different predictions about the exchange rate - it is more like a game of roulette. The same is the case with many other expert predictions.
What to do: when you are an expert, consider whether it has jurisdiction and does not express whether the prejudice in this area enough. Fulfilled must contain the opinion of different experts with equally high qualifications.
4. average values
The media often refer to the average values. But in practice, they do not give any idea of the real situation.
For example, you report that the average welfare of hundreds of people in the room, is a whopping $ 350 million. You think that there came the rich. But in the room can be Mark Zuckerberg (his fortune is estimated at $ 25 billion) and 99 poor.
Average values in practice often do not give any idea of the real situation.
Another example: you can read that one in five newborns - Chinese. You will notice that the family living in the neighborhood, already have four children, and now they are waiting for a refill. But the family is unlikely to be born a little Chinese. The average value is calculated for all births in the world, and not in the particular family, a particular house in a particular area or country.
What to do: Be careful with the average values, as well as how they are interpreted. The average value is almost never impossible to conclude that what is happening in reality.
5. underlying causes
We often talk about the sensational findings or facts that no one knew.
For example, on some site you met the results of experiments which indicate that a completely new, previously unknown vitamin cocktail will increase your IQ level by 20 points. But why no one had heard about it? You explain that the drug companies hide the fact that you bought a more expensive supplements and vitamins.
Is not there an alternative explanation? Maybe someone just wants to make money on psevdokokteyle and outright lies.
What to do: assessing someone's statement, ask yourself if there is another reason - in addition to the one on which you report - which could cause the situation in question.
6. false correlations
In a world of so much going on, it is always spot a strange coincidence. We are often portrayed them as cause and effect. However, this may be a simple coincidence.
Tyler Vijay, a law student at Harvard University, has created a website where collected examples of strange correlations, such:
Is Nicolas Cage has superpowers and drown people? Of course not. Most likely, we are dealing with a coincidence.
What to do: if you talk about the causal relationship between phenomena that are poorly linked, remember, it could be a coincidence. Require more evidence.
7. Incorrect sampling
The media often report the results of public opinion research, but do not say anything about who was involved in the survey.
For example, you could hear that the unemployment rate among young people in Spain was 23% - and this is amazing. However, it turned out that the report in one sample included people who belong to different social groups: there were also students who are not interested in finding a job, and those who had just been fired, and those who sought work.
Sometimes researchers just are not looking there.
The USA Today newspaper of July 2015 it was reported that the US unemployment rate fell to 5.3% - the lowest level since April 2008. More competent sources named the cause of the apparent decline: many unemployed simply given up trying to find work, so technically not included in the reporting.
What to do: when you give the results of public opinion research, specify, who is interviewed scientists and they have not missed an alternative explanation.
To make the right decisions, it is necessary to distinguish truth from fiction and exaggeration. The publishing house "Myth" book "Guide to lie." Use it, in order not to fall for liars and filter the information that flows from news and advertising.
Paper bookElectronic book
See also:
- How to detect fakes in news on the Internet →
- 11 of the rules of the dispute on the Internet with the supporters of pseudoscience →
- TEST: Is it true or fake?
Subscribe
YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE
