3 thinking errors that we make in decision-making

Most people are hard to make decisions when they do not know their effects, and often at the same time they make a mistake. Psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky have started cooperation on the basis of studies of contradictions in human behavior.

1. We rely on heuristics

The researchers found that when people have to make decisions under conditions of uncertainty, they tend to use heuristics - the there are simplifications based on light, effective rules, often focusing on only one aspect of the problem and ignores all rest.

For example, imagine that you have been told, "Steve - very shy and closed, always comes to the aid of different softness and gentleness, needs to have order and structure, attentive to detail. " After that, you are given options to his profession: the farmer, the seller, the pilot of the aircraft, a librarian, a doctor. What profession do you think is the most probable?

You may want to say "librarian", but in fact the world far more farmers than librarians, so Steve is more likely to be a farmer, despite his personal characteristics. This - the representativeness heuristic.

Was an experiment in which a group of students was told about one out of a hundred experts, "Dick is married and has no children. This is a man with great ability and highly motivatedHe promises to be very successful in their field. His colleagues like. "

Half of the students said that this group of a hundred people composed of 70% of engineers and 30% of the lawyers, and the other half - the other way around. Then they were asked how likely Dick can be an engineer or a lawyer, and they all said that 50 to 50.

That is, they ignored the fact that it is much more likely to have to be a part of a larger group: the chances were to be 70 to 30 in one direction or another.

2. Ignore the regression to the mean

Imagine that a large group of children passed two equal options aptitude test. Let's say you chose the ten best results for the first test version, and then found that the same children were given ten worst results for the second version. And vice versa: you have selected ten children with the worst values ​​of the first version of the test - and they are given the best options for the second version.

This phenomenon is called "regression to the mean," and was first mentioned by Francis Galton in the XIX century. Ten best students can really be the best in class, but they can pass the test a little better than others simply because of luck; they are far more likely will be closer to the average. The consequences of this phenomenon lies in the fact that the top ten is likely to roll back, and ten worst - will move forward.

The researchers note that ignoring this fact can lead to dangerous consequences: "When discussing training flights experienced instructors noted that praise for the successful landing usually leads to less successful landing on the next attempt at the while sharp criticism unsuccessful landing leads to a better result at the next attempt. "

Instructors concluded that verbal praise is not useful for learning and verbal punishment is useful, which is contrary to the accepted psychological doctrine. This conclusion is substantiated by the presence of regression to the mean.

3. Incorrectly estimate probability

The researchers interviewed one hundred and twenty graduates of Stanford University, as according to them, they will die with the greatest probability.

They are slightly underestimated the probability of natural events and greatly overestimated the probability of unnatural events. One gets the impression that they are too much worried because of accidents and murders, and perhaps not enough to worry about health.

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