10 criteria that help distinguish a true conspiracy theory from a false one

In 1997, as part of a promotional campaign for my first book, Why People Believe Strange Things, I was a guest on a radio show. The host asked me if I thought strange conspiracy theories and whether to treat them with skepticism. He himself was sure that most of them were false for two reasons: lack of competence and information leakage. He called conspiracy theorists mediocre, clumsy fools who don’t know how to keep their mouths shut. And he repeated after Benjamin Franklin that three can only keep a secret if two of them are dead.

In my new book I'm showing that some conspiracy theories are actually true, so we can't dismiss them all outright. But how to distinguish reality from fiction? What criteria will help determine whether a theory corresponds to reality, is most likely false, or cannot be precisely defined? I suggest thinking about this from the perspective of signal detection theory.

This method is aimed at assessing whether some signal or information is true or false. Depending on the decision in this regard, we can create a selection matrix:

• At the top left will be the conspiracy theories that you believe are true, and indeed they are. This is the right hit.
• Top right are theories that you define as false when in fact they are true. This is a miss, or a false negative.
• Below on the left will be the theories that you believe false, hitting the mark again. This is the correct denial.
• And finally, at the bottom right there will be theories that you mistakenly accept as real. This is a false positive result.

It is worth keeping in mind that conspiracy theories are very diverse, so there is no single set of criteria that would help accurately determine the veracity of each. The described matrix is ​​rather a heuristic algorithm, a rule of thumb, a way to assess the veracity of information that is not reliable, but also not a random guess, starting with the fact that all conspiracy theories fall into a certain spectrum reliability.

Below is a list of 10 items that I call the Conspiracy Detection Kit. The more a conspiracy theory meets these criteria, the less likely it is to be true.

1. Stereotyping

Evidence of a conspiracy theory can be found in a pattern formed by “connecting the dots” between events that do not necessarily have a cause-and-effect relationship. When there is no evidence to support such a connection other than claims of conspiracy, or when that evidence is equally well suited to explain another patterns or even an accident, conspiracy theories most likely have no basis in reality.

2. Agency

The agents, that is, the actors behind the conspiracy theory, require supernatural abilities to pull it off. In most cases, people, intelligence agencies or corporations are not at all as influential and strong as we think. If a conspiracy involves super-powerful participants, it is often far from the truth.

3. Complexity

A conspiracy theory consists of many components, and for the plan to be successfully implemented, they all must come together at the right time and in the right order. The more elements involved and the more precise the timing, the higher the likelihood that the conspiracy theory will be false.

4. Number of participants

The more people involved, the less likely the conspiracy theory is to be true. Conspiracies with many participants who have to keep secrets usually fail.

People are incompetent and emotional. They can mess up, become cowardly, change their minds, and begin to suffer from remorse. Conspiracy theories are based on treating people as robotsexecuting commands. This is very far from reality.

5. Grandiosity

If the conspiracy theory includes some incredible ambition (to seize power over the nation, economy, political system) and even more so if it is aimed at world domination, then almost everything probably a lie. The grander the idea, the more likely it is that it will fall apart for the reasons mentioned above: complexity and human factor.

6. Scale

As a conspiracy theory grows and moves from small events that may be true to larger ones, the chances of it being true decreases. Most real conspiracies connected with specific events and goals, for example, insider trading on the stock exchange, tax evasion, support for allies in another country and even the elimination of political leaders, but always with a clearly defined goal - to seize power or stop tyranny.

7. Significance

If a conspiracy theory attaches special significance to events that seem harmless and insignificant, or ascribes sinister meaning to them, it is most likely false. Again, most real options are narrowly focused and important only to those who benefit from them, or those who will suffer from them. And they rarely change the world.

8. Accuracy

When a theory mixes facts with speculation, without distinguishing between them and without attempting to determine the degree of their probability or coincidence with reality, it indicates that it is a lie.

Conspiracy theorists are notorious for adding a handful of verifiable facts to a huge number of guesses and assumptions that blur reality and confuse others into believing there is more to a theory than there is In fact.

9. Paranoia

Conspiracy theorists are extremely suspicious of all government agencies and private corporations. This means that they do not understand all the intricacies of how the world works. Yes, sometimes “they” do follow us, but usually this is not the case at all.

When you combine all of the above elements into a conspiracy theory, it is almost always that looks like a sinister conspiracy, in fact it either turns out to be an accident or has a much more prosaic explanation.

10. Refutability

Conspiracy theorists generally refuse to consider alternative explanations, rejecting any evidence that refute their theory, and are clearly looking only for supporting evidence to support what they a priori believe the truth. If a conspiracy theory cannot be disproven, it is probably false.

To these 10 criteria I would add one more - type of state or society. In open, transparent and free countries with liberal democracies, it is more difficult to carry out a conspiracy because illegal and immoral groups that try to cheat the system are opposed by various social and political institutes. In closed and authoritarian societies, conspiracy theories, on the contrary, can flourish, and sometimes the state itself becomes the most dangerous conspiracy theorist.