5 thought experiments to test how biased your judgments are

Julia Galef has been researching cognitive biases since 2011 and is a specialist in rational decision making. The publishing house "MIF" published her book "Thinking without blind spots” is a guide on how to deal with biased thinking. An excerpt from the chapter “How to identify biases” will teach you to look at your judgments from different angles in order to make informed decisions and not wishful thinking.

Checking for double standards

One young man, let's call him Dan, went to a military school, where the ratio of boys and girls was clearly in favor of the former. In his parallel there were 250 boys and only 30 girls. Since the girls had a wide choice, they preferred beautiful, athletic or especially charming boys. Dan was not one of them. He was shy and not very handsome, and he did not get the precious attention of girls at all. Offended by this lack of interest, Dan came to the conclusion that all girls are arrogant bitches.

But one day Dan did a thought experiment that helped him look at things differently. Dan asked himself, “Can I honestly say that if I were a girl, I would behave differently?” The answer was unequivocal. “Of course, in this case, I would only date the most attractive' Dan realized. Not that this point of view helped him immediately acquire a girlfriend, but he became calmer. relate to the situation at school, and later, when he matured a little, it became easier for him to communicate with women.

Dan's act is a kind of double standard test.

“Maybe I judge other people by standards that I wouldn’t apply to myself?” Checking for double standards can be carried out not only for individuals, but also for groups. Surely you have come across the most common form of it, when a supporter of one political party says to a supporter of another: “Stop defending your candidate! If ours did the same, you would sing in a completely different way!

Much less often a person addresses a similar question to himself, but this happens. I was very impressed with the use of this test in an online discussion in 2009. It was about the intention of the Democrats to remove loophole in laws, thanks to which one of the parties could endlessly sabotage the adoption of a law in the Senate. One of the commentators, a supporter of the Democrats, spoke out, citing So: “I just imagined how I would react if I heard that [Republican President George W. Bush] used such tactics when discussing the military budget or something like that. I wouldn't like it at all."

So far, we have considered examples where a person judges other people or groups unfairly harshly. But this test will also help identify the opposite case of double standards: when a person judges himself much more severely than he would judge another in exactly the same situation. If you mentally beat yourself up silly a question asked in a class or meeting, imagine that someone else asked that question. What would be your reaction? And how much would you even pay attention to it?

Outsider test

The first half of 1985 was a "dark and desperate" time for technology company Intel, according to co-founder Andrew Grove. Prior to that, Intel had been successful in selling the memory modules it specialized in. By 1984, however, Japanese competitors had learned to make modules that ran faster and better than Intel's.

Intel's top executives watched as Japan captured more and more market share, while their own share was decreasing, and endlessly argued what to do. Their company was simply knocked out of the market. Maybe switch to some other product? But the production of memory modules was at the heart of the very existence of the company. The idea that Intel would no longer make chips seemed sacrilegious, almost a distortion of religious dogma.

In his memoir, Only the Paranoid Survive, Grove describes a conversation with the company's second founder, Gordon Moore. This conversation saved Intel.

“We were depressed. I stood at the window, watching the Ferris wheel in the Great America amusement park spinning in the distance. Then I turned back to Gordon and asked: “If we were kicked out and the board of directors brought new CEO, what do you think he would do?” “Get out of the memory market,” replied Gordon. I silently looked at him for a long time, and then said: “You know what, let's go out the door with you, come back and do it ourselves.”

Once the founders of Intel realized that abandoning the production of once-famous chips from the outside seems like an obvious choice, the decision was practically made. That is how the company managed to get out of the predicament of the mid-eighties, switching from memory production to what Intel is famous for today - the production of microprocessors.

The thought experiment that Grove and Moore did is called the outsider test. Imagine that someone else is in your place. What would he do in your situation? When to take difficult decision, the question “What to do” is complicated by other, emotionally loaded questions, such as: “Is my Is it our fault that we are in this situation? and “How strongly others will judge me if I change my solution?"

The outsider's test removes emotional complications, leaving only discussions about how best to proceed in this case.

This test has a variation: you can imagine that you are an outsider. Let's say you are a student. You have two more years to study, but you understand more and more clearly that the chosen profession does not attract you at all. Have you considered quitting your studies, but the thought that already spent a few years of your life is so painful that you always find an excuse to stay at the university.

Imagine that you are a different person and your mind was somehow magically transplanted into the body of a person named (write in your name). You do not feel any responsibility for his past decisions, you have no need to appear consistent or the desire to prove your case. You just want to make the best use of the situation you find yourself in. As if you have a sign hanging around your neck:Under new administration». Now tell me what's your perspective more attractive: Lose two more years of graduating for (insert your name) or leave and do something more interesting?

Conformity test

As a child, I adored my cousin Shoshana: she was two years older and seemed amazing to me adult and refined. Once, when our families went camping together, Shoshana introduced me to the songs of the fashion band New Kids On The Block. We sat in Shoshana's tent and listened to the band's latest album on her new cassette recorder. Shoshana said, "Wow, this is going to be my favorite song!"

When the song ended, Shoshana asked me, “How are you?” I responded enthusiastically, "Amazing, I think it's my favorite song too."

"You know? Shoshana suddenly said. “My favorite song is not this at all. I just can't stand this one. I just wanted to see if you would monkey around."

Then I became very ashamed. But now I see that this episode was very instructive. Calling this song my favorite, I was not hypocritical - it really seemed to me better than others. I didn't feel like I was saying this just to make an impression to Shoshana. And then, when she revealed her cards, I felt my opinion about the song change right at that very moment. She suddenly seemed stupid to me. Ugly. Boring. It was as if someone turned on a spotlight, and in the bright light, all her shortcomings immediately became visible.

Now I use the Shoshana trick when I want to test whether "my" opinion is really mine. If I catch myself consent with someone, then I take a test of conformity: I imagine how the interlocutor says that he no longer thinks so. Will I stay the same? Will I be able to defend it in a conversation with this person?

Imagine that you are in a strategy meeting and another participant argues that the company should hire more people. You catch yourself nodding, “Yes, that’s right, it will save us money in the end.” You think that this is your own opinion. A conformity test will help check. Imagine that the same colleague suddenly says: “Actually, I'm trying to play the devil's advocate. In fact, I don’t think at all that we need to hire people now.” After hearing this, do you still think that you should hire staff?

The conformity test can be used not only to test your own opinions, but also to test your own preferences.

One of my acquaintances, a woman in her late thirties, wondered if she would ever want children. She always assumed that eventually she would have children - but whether because she herself wants it, or simply because most people eventually have children?

She conducted a mental conformity test: “What if not the majority, but, for example, 30% of all people had children? Would I still have kids or not?” And she realized that in such an alternative world, the prospect of having children no longer seems so attractive to her. Through this thought experiment, she found out that her desire for parenthood is much weaker than she previously thought.

Selective Skepticism Test

While researching for this book, I came across an article that stated that soldier mindset brings people to life success. “Come on,” I snorted contemptuously to myself and began to check the research methodology. Of course, the results turned out to be worthless.

Then, very reluctantly, I did a thought experiment: “What if the article claimed that the soldier’s mindset prevents people from succeeding in life?!”

I realized that in this case my reaction would be completely different: “I thought so! I should definitely mention this study in my book!” Such a contrast between my reaction in the real world and in alternative acted like a cold shower on me: I realized that I trusted too much data to confirm my point vision.

This inspired me to re-examine all the scientific research that I was going to use in my book, and check their methodology for flaws - just like I just did with this article, which draws conclusions in favor of thinking soldier. (Unfortunately, I must say that I ended up having to discard most of the previously selected studies.) I call this thought experiment the selective skepticism test.

Imagine that these scientific results do not support your point of view, but the opposite. How convincing do you find them?

For example, someone criticizes a decision made by your company. The first thing that comes to your mind is: “This person is talking about things they don’t know because they don’t have access to all the data they need.” The test of selective skepticism looks like this: imagine that this person is not scolding, but praising your company. Will you still think that weighty opinion can only a specialist from the relevant industry speak on this issue?

Let's say you're a feminist and you're reading an article that says feminists hate men. As proof, the author cites several tweets from people completely unknown to you, something like this: “All men should be burned alive! #all power to women #feminism. You think: “I beg you. Of course, in any group you can find idiots or extremists, if you look hard enough. Such one-sidedly selected facts do not give any idea about feminism».

Selective skepticism test: imagine that the article contains one-sidedly selected statements of people from a group that you do not like, for example conservatives. How will you proceed in such a case? Would you reject the article's conclusions on the grounds that there are a small number of idiots in any group, and this fact says nothing about the group as a whole?

The status quo bias test

My friend David lived in his hometown surrounded by friends from his college days. He was offered an amazing job in Silicon Valley, and he was torn, not knowing whether to accept. After all, there are such wonderful friends around him. Is it worth it to leave them for good work?

And David did a thought experiment: “Let’s say I already live in San Francisco and I have an interesting and well-paid job there. Would I want to quit my job and move back to my hometown to be closer to my friends?” And he knew he didn't want to.

David's thought experiment helped him realize that his view of the situation was most likely due to a cognitive bias called "status quo bias”, - the desire to save the situation in which you are at the moment. The leading hypothesis to explain this cognitive bias is that we tend to avoid loss: the pain of a loss is greater than the pleasure of a similar gain. Therefore, we are reluctant to change the current situation: after all, even if change we will get better, we are more focused on the future loss than on the future gain.

I call David's thought experiment a test of the status quo bias.

Imagine that you are not in your current position, but in some other. Will you make an effort to change this position to your present one?

If not, then the current situation attracts you not so much with its advantages, but with the fact that you are already in it. are.

The status quo bias test can be applied not only to personal decisions, but also to political ones. […] When you consider and reject any of the proposed changes in society, this is a good time to test yourself against the status quo bias. Consider, as an example, research aimed at increasing duration human life. If scientists find a way to lengthen a person's life by half, from about 85 years to one hundred and seventy, will it be good? No, according to many people with whom I have discussed this issue. “If we live that long, progress will slow down terribly,” they argue. “It is necessary that the old generations die out, making room for new generations with new ideas.”

To test yourself for status quo prejudice, let's imagine that a person by nature lives an average of 170 years. But then certain genetic the mutation shortens the life of the average person to 85 years. Will you be happy? If not, then perhaps you don't really believe that faster social progress can be paid for with a shorter life expectancy.

Common Thought Experiments

Thought experiments are not oracle predictions. They will not tell you what is true, what is fair, or what decision you should make. […]

In fact, thought experiments only show that your reasoning changes when your motivation changes. The principles that guide you and the objections that come to your mind depend on your motives: the desire to maintain your image or position in the group; striving to implement policies that protect your interests; fear of change or fear be rejected.

When you catch yourself in motivated reasoning - you discover previously unnoticed flaws in the design of the experiment or the way your preferences change when seemingly insignificant details of the scenario change - this destroys the illusion that your original judgment and There is objective true. You begin to truly realize that your initial judgments are only the starting point for exploring the issue, and not the end point.

Buy a book

“Thinking Without Blind Spots” is useful for those who do not want to be led by a trickster brain and become a hostage to a certain type of thinking. The author of the book will talk about common cognitive distortions and teach you to reason objectively.