Why we should not be afraid that new technologies will take our jobs

At the center of any economic theory is a person who has certain needs and seeks to satisfy them. It is also called homo economicus. Researchers study the motivation and behavior of "economic man", and then try to predict the development of supply and demand.

To meet the needs, people earn money. This has been the case for many centuries. But now and then there are reports that homo economicus will soon have problems with work and money. And it's all to blame artificial intelligence, which will easily replace thousands or even millions of people.

The economist Rostislav Kapelyushnikov told blogger Boris Vedensky about whether we should be afraid of new technologies. Recording their conversation posted on YouTube channel "The basis", and we made a summary.

Is it true that people have always been afraid of new technologies?

Panic predictions of the complete victory of technology over people and the emergence of mass unemployment can be called technological alarmism. Over the past centuries, its waves covered us three times.

Late 18th - early 19th century

It was the time of the invention of steam engines, which caused the first industrial revolution. At that time, many were afraid that new machines would take away all the work from people. There was a movement of Luddites who believed that the achievements of progress must be fought until they left people without bread. Then society really experienced serious upheavals, but people did not remain completely without work.

Mid-1960s

At the end of the 19th century, the second industrial revolution took place: electricity and internal combustion engines. But these discoveries did not cause a strong panic in society. But in the middle of the last century, a new wave of economic fears arose. It was associated with the next stage of development - the beginning of production automation.

Society was again afraid that people would have nothing to do. It seemed that now progress will not spare mankind, and all professional skills and abilities will soon turn out to be useless to anyone. But it worked out again.

2008–2009

This wave began after a severe economic recession. Perhaps it will remain the strongest in our history. After all, in 90s XX century, according to some researchers, there was a third industrial revolution - computers and computer technology appeared.

Well, today we have come close to the fourth wave of technological alarmism, which arose with the advent of artificial intelligence. And pessimists again believe that we are threatened by robotization and widespread digitalization. But they are especially afraid of the development of neural networks. Moreover, the future today seems to be a gloomy dystopia not only for ordinary people, but also for many experts.

us again scare - for the umpteenth time in over two centuries.

Are most modern professions really going to disappear?

In 2013, British economists Carl Frey and Michael Osborne published work on how the job market will change in the future. They suggested that within the next 15–20 years professions, which fed at that time approximately 47% of Americans.

Then, according to their methodology, economists made calculations for other countries, including Russia. The predictions came out almost apocalyptic. It turned out that in all countries from 40 to 60% of the able-bodied population will remain unemployed.

More than 10 years have passed since then. And not a single profession of those that Frey and Osborn predicted a quick death has disappeared. And we do not see a sharp decrease in the number of people who work as accountants, drivers, auditors, assistants lawyers. Professions that were promised complete extinction are still in demand.

Okay, 10 years is a short time. But James Bessen of Boston University calculatedhow many professions we have lost since the middle of the last century. He chose the original array of 300 with few positions. And I found out that by 2010 only one had disappeared from this list - the elevator operator. Automatic doors appeared, there was no need to hire a person who would open and close them. Other professions, of course, have changed, but have not completely disappeared.

Accountants have forgotten about the accounts and are actively using computers, while paralegals are looking for the necessary documents not in the library, but on the Internet. But neither one nor the other profession is a thing of the past.

Why mass unemployment has not yet appeared

This was the logic behind the predictions that millions of people would lose their jobs. Let's say a company can produce 100 units of output and it requires 100 people. This hundred is doing great, but then a new technology comes along. And now only 50 people are enough to produce the same amount of goods. This means that the remaining fifty will be out of work and without money.

This logic seemed flawless. But then economists became convinced that the volume of output does not remain fixed. If the enterprise is able to make more goods, it will never miss the opportunity to increase profits. This means that there will also be employment for the released workers.

If sales increase and profits become larger, then over time, the salaries of employees who work on new equipment will also rise. If the production becomes easier and faster, then its cost, and then the retail price, will decrease. This means that consumers will have money left, and they will be able to sell more different goods. Which will also need to be produced, and this will require new working hands.

Of course, some people still will lose his job. For example, once cab drivers were left idle, because car drivers were needed instead. But there was no catastrophe in the employment market. And this situation is unlikely to change.

Why we should wait for the emergence of new professions

Let's answer this question from the point of view of economics and the alleged behavior of its main object - homo economicus. Everything is very simple: people will definitely have new needs. Those that they could not even think of at the previous round of technological progress.

Any new need is potential jobs for many people. So - the reason for the emergence of new professions that will be in demand by society.