The concept of the "black swan": why it is pointless to try to predict the future
Miscellaneous / / July 05, 2023
Unpreparedness for the unexpected can lead to serious consequences. But it's not all that bad.
Until 1697, it was believed that swans could only be white. Birds of other colors were not recorded in nature, and this statement seemed unshakable and the only true one.
The Roman poet Juvenal wrote: "A rare bird on earth, like a black swan." This expression was picked up by medieval authors, and the metaphor served in England until the 16th century to describe events, things and phenomena that could not possibly happen.
But in 1697, the Dutch navigator Willem de Vlamingh went to Western Australia on a rescue mission and discovered the black swan, an endemic species found only there. He even took a few birds with him to his homeland - as evidence.
Of course, de Vlamingh did not turn scientific life upside down. It cannot be said that, in terms of significance, his discovery fell somewhere between the invention of wheelsand the decay of the atom. But the British had to abandon the usual phraseological unit.
And 300 years later, this ornithological curiosity was used to illustrate his theory of uncertainty by the Lebanese-American statistician, mathematician and essayist Nassim Taleb.
What is the essence of the theory of "black swan"
No one expected the black swan to exist, but it was eventually discovered. No one could have predicted this discovery, but it happened. Taleb thought this was a good metaphor and wrote in 2007 book "Black Swan. Under the sign of unpredictability ”, which became a bestseller.
In his work, the former optional trader addressed mainly to risk managers and financiers. But his theory is applicable to other areas of knowledge, so it will be useful for mere mortals to get acquainted with it.
The concept sounds like this: there are extremely rare events that are almost impossible to predict. But they have a huge impact on the world, literally determining the course of further history. When they occur, it seems that they could be predicted, although in fact they are completely unpredictable.
Such events Taleb called "black swans". And each of them must have three properties.
1. The event is unexpected. Until it happens, serious experts do not suggest that there is such a possibility.
2. It has significant implications. The "Black Swan" literally changes the course of world events that will come after.
3. After the fact, a rational explanation is found for the event. This is Taleb calling retrospective predictability. That is, when something that some time ago seemed completely unbelievable to us comes, we say: “This was to be expected! Look how many alarm bells and obvious prerequisites there were! Although no one paid attention to these “bells”, until the cancer on the mountain did not whistle.
Nassim Taleb states that almost all significant historical events, scientific discoveries, political actions - in general, everything that more or less affects our world is "black swans". Therefore, it is impossible to predict the course of history. Of course, only if you do not provoke these events yourself.
Why Black Swan Unpredictability Is Relative
For most people in the world, "black swans" come as a complete surprise. But if their arrival was not caused by chance, but by someone's will, then for the initiator everything will be predictable and expected.
Taleb calls this the "Turkey Problem, or the Problem of Inductive Knowledge"—that's right, capitalized "because it's no joke." thought experiment he borrowed the philosopher Bertrand Russell had a different bird, though. Chicken.
Imagine: a turkey sits in a cage and is fed every day. From the point of view of the bird, everything is fine: the owner comes to her and puts grains in the feeder, and this happens regularly.
The turkey has no reason to believe that she will ever stop being fed, because her experience is invariably repeated over and over again. And the more she gains weight, the stronger the confidence grows that this will continue to be the case. But then something does change.
On the eve of Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. This something will entail a revision of beliefs.
Nassim Taleb
For a turkey, the fact that she was suddenly not given grain, but instead her neck was twisted, is a typical “black swan”, because she could not predict this catastrophe. But for the butcher, this is a completely predictable result - otherwise why would he care so much about this creature?
Naturally, if a turkey had survived the slaughter, the plucking, and the cooking, she might have said, “I knew that bastard didn’t feed me out of the goodness of his heart! But there were alarm bells! Did you notice the manic gleam in his eyes?” In hindsight, everything is strong.
As a result, what happened to the unfortunate bird leads us to a simple conclusion: statistical results in the past cannot guarantee certainty in the future.
What events have become "black swans" for all of us
A classic example of a "black swan" in book Nassima Taleb - terrorist attack on the twin towers of the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001. And it meets all three criteria that we talked about above.
1. The attack was unexpected. If on September 10 any security expert reported that terrorists would hijack a plane and crash into skyscrapers on it, hardly anyone would believe him and began to cancel flights and evacuate people from buildings. Moreover, if a certain politician used all his power and influence to introduce enhanced security measures before terrorist attack, and not after, then the tragedy would not have happened. This means that no one would have appreciated the actions of the nameless hero: after all, nothing terrible happened - only the airlines' costs increased.
2. The event had significant consequences. This is the arrival of American troops and their allies in Iraq, the war against terrorists, the hunt for bin Laden and his subsequent elimination.
3. Explanations for the September 11 attacks were found after the fact, and it was considered retrospectively predictable. It was only after the clash happened that the CIA remembered that Osama bin Laden had declared jihad on Jews and Americans since 1996 and issued two fatwas calling for "killing the crusaders." Until September 11, 2011, no one listened to what some religious fanatic was saying, but after the terrorist attack, he became the world's number one threat.
Without 9/11, modern security measures would not have been put in place for aircraftwhen the crew is separated from the cabin by bulletproof doors, and passengers are carefully screened when boarding. And it is precisely because of them that a repetition of such an event has become extremely unlikely.
Taleb notes that people always prepare for "black swans" that have already happened when it's too late, but do not think at all about abstract accidents that have not yet happened.
September 11 shows well the relativity of the “black swan”: for the victims who died in the ruins, this event was absolutely unexpected, but for the terrorists it was expected.
The author of the theory is sure that almost every historical event that entailed large-scale changes is a “black swan”. For example, the sinking of the Titanic: this ship was considered unsinkable, and its captain noted that he had never encountered any emergency at sea.
The arrival of Europeans in the New World was certainly a "black swan" for both the Indians and the navigators themselves. The collapse came as a complete surprise. Soviet Union, although later historians found many of its premises. In general, there are a lot of illustrations.
Are there examples of good black swans?
The very phrase "black swan" sounds rather gloomy. But do not think that it always means only something bad. For example, all significant inventions can be called this way.
All the classics of science fiction dreamed of flying cars and space travel, but predict the advent of flat screens no one could. Remember the books of Ivan Efremov - he has people of the distant future flying to other planetary systems, and spaceships still have dials with arrows.
The author simply could not imagine the transition from analog computers to digital ones, from lamps and arrows to AMOLED displays. So modern achievements in the field of computers and electronics are “black swans”.
The invention of the Internet in the form in which it is now was also not predicted by anyone: science fiction writers were limited only to some “world library and remote communication”.
Finally, "black swans" can be called various cultural phenomena, such as the birth of musical hits or literary bestsellers. JK Rowling lived on welfare when she wrote her series about Harry Potter at a table in a cafe. And she could hardly have foreseen that, after numerous refusals from publishers, she would become an idol for millions of people and earn more than a billion dollars.
Is it possible to predict the appearance of "black swans"
Nassim Taleb claimsthat "black swans" are unpredictable by their very nature. They represent events with a high level of importance that are difficult to predict due to their uniqueness, rarity and uncommonness.
The author of the concept emphasizes that many people tend to mistakenly believe that the future can be fully predicted based on past data and models. And at the same time ignoring the possibility of occurrence of events that go beyond expectations. Such a mistake, he believes, leads to insufficient readiness for unpredictable things. And it can have serious consequences.
However, this does not mean that nothing in the world is possible at all. predict. We can use certain tools and models to assess the likelihood of various events and risks. For example, statistical analysis, forecasting and scenario planning. They can help us understand the possible trends and probabilities of certain events, but do not guarantee accurate predictions.
Therefore, we must develop strategies that will enable us to successfully deal with and respond to surprises. Although it is impossible to accurately predict the appearance of black swans, you can develop mental flexibility, learn to manage risks and be prepared for the unexpected.
As Taleb said, you cannot stop the Martian invasion, but you have many other ways to protect yourself - in other words, do not become a turkey.
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