The Dark Forest Theory: Why You Shouldn't Look for Aliens
Miscellaneous / / June 12, 2023
And why humanity should also not report itself.
What do researchers think about aliens?
The idea that the Earth is not the only planet inhabited by intelligent beings appeared a long time ago. Both science fiction writers and scientists argued about this, for example Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, Carl Sagan and Frank Drake. The last one even made up the formula for calculating the approximate number of our space neighbors is the Drake equation. The astronomer suggested multiplying the number of sun-like stars and planets with suitable conditions for life, the probability of the appearance of intelligent beings on them, and a number of other indicators. True, no one has yet succeeded in finding an exact solution to the equation.
It is impossible to determine the correct value of most variables, so some calculations show a result close to one, others - to 10,000. But there is still a chance that we are not alone in the Universe.
Why, in this case, no one has yet come into contact with people or was not
detected by radar? This puzzle is called the Fermi paradox, after the Italian physicist who first voiced her publicly. The scientist himself, by the way, assumed that the aliens simply did not have the technology that would allow them get to earth.The Fermi paradox has given rise to many hypotheses. Some researchers supposethat people for aliens are akin to animals: they choose to observe humanity from the side, just as we do not seek to find a common language with snakes or pandas. Other considerthat humans are so far the only intelligent form of life in the universe. Third allowthat all other civilizations do not have time to get in touch, because they destroy themselves too quickly, developing dangerous weapons and technologies.
The dark forest theory is another fantastic hypothesis that explains the Fermi Paradox. And it is perhaps the darkest.
What is the dark forest theory
Space in it is compared with a dense impenetrable thicket, and extraterrestrial civilizations - with hunters who hide behind every tree and bush. They are silent, unpredictable and spare no one in their path. Paranoia makes aliens maintain complete radio silence and not transmit signals to other planets.
Name of the theory appeared thanks to the Chinese science fiction writer Liu Cixin. This is how he described the cosmos and those who inhabit it in the novel The Dark Forest. In defense of the hypothesis, the author gives the following arguments:
- All living things do not want to die.
- Civilizations in the universe can be both aggressive and benevolent. But it is impossible to know in advance whether any of them poses a threat.
- The safest course of action for any species is not to disassemble, but to destroy another life form before it has a chance to do the same.
Liu Cixin is not the first person to come up with this idea. Similar thoughts were voiced in the novels The Forge of God by Greg Beer and The Killer Star by Charles R. Pellegrino and George Zebrowski.
By the way, the dark forest theory is similar to another possible solution to the Fermi paradox - berserker hypothesis. Its supporters are sure that a very progressive, but unfriendly civilization can exist in the Universe. She possesses a weapon that automatically destroys everything she finds. Such thoughts are expressed not only by fans of science fiction, but also by scientists, for example, a physicist and a NASA consultant. David Brin.
What should humanity do?
In short, enjoy loneliness and not seek contacts with the inhabitants of other planets.
Model of survival of people in the "dark forest" can be explained through game theory - a mathematical method for studying optimal strategies. The universe in this case is a field, and different forms of life are players. All alien inhabitants act in turn, not knowing anything about others at all. There are three move options:
- Be silent.
- Attempt to introduce yourself in order to find buddies or form an alliance.
- Kill others.
Winning the game is survival. Therefore, those who remain silent or attack are more likely to succeed. But partnership is not the best idea. The companion may turn out to be a villain or a traitor.
Assuming the dark forest theory is correct, all experiments humanity to study the universe is a very risky thing. There is a possibility that a more developed and, moreover, aggressive civilization, having caught a radio signal from the Earth, will really want to destroy us.
What's wrong with the dark forest theory
Not everyone is ready to consider space as a gloomy thicket with bloodthirsty hunters. Opponents lead as arguments, questions to which the hypothesis does not give logical answers:
- How did all civilizations in the universe come to a single decision - to remain silent? The inhabitants of different planets never communicated. It turns out that all without exception are fearful recluses. Everything but people. We actively communicate about ourselves and even try to purposefully get in touch with aliens. It seems strange that among alien life forms there are no other such inquisitive explorers.
- Why are earthlings still alive? This question follows from the previous one. We are actively sharing signals, which means that cautious aliens should have found us long ago.
- How do civilizations manage to hide their existence? Rockets, satellites, and other technologies radiate heat and stand out against the cold of space. An advanced civilization will be noticed even if it does not send direct messages.
In any case, the dark forest theory and other solutions to the Fermi Paradox are only speculations. It is impossible to prove or disprove them, at least not yet. But one thing is certain: scientists do not plan to stop space exploration because of the ideas of science fiction writers.
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