WHO named three scenarios for the development of the COVID-19 pandemic

World Health Organization published a new report on the situation with COVID-19, which identified three possible scenarios for the development of the pandemic in the next 12 months.

Base Scenario

According to the baseline scenario, the SARS-CoV-2 virus will continue to develop, however, the severity of the disease will gradually decrease as the level of immunity increases due to vaccination and past infections.

Outbreaks of COVID-19 will become smaller, but with periodic bursts due to an increase in the proportion of susceptible individuals over time. This will require periodic revaccination, at least for people in high-risk groups.

It is likely that the coronavirus will become more seasonal with peaks in the cold months, as is the case with influenza.

best case scenario

Under the best-case scenario, all future variants of the coronavirus will be much less dangerous, and protection from severe course of the disease will persist even without the need for re-vaccination and booster vaccination.

Vaccines in this case, they will not need major changes, which will accelerate their distribution.

Worst case scenario

In the worst case, we are waiting for an even more dangerous and easily transmitted virus. Vaccines against it will be less effective, and immunity or protection against severe disease will quickly erode, especially in the most vulnerable patients.

This scenario will require significant changes in vaccines, a complete redeployment of prevention supplies, and more extensive revaccination of at-risk populations.

So far, all options are rather uncertain, so WHO is trying to apply a flexible approach to predicting the situation. Either scenario calls for an extension of all virus surveillance measures to continuously monitor for possible strain changes and new outbreaks.

COVID-19 will definitely not be the last pandemic, but it is in our power to prepare for a new possible threat and reduce to minimize the risk of a negative scenario, said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director General of the World Organization healthcare.