Where did the flu disappear during the COVID-19 pandemic and whether to wait for it back
Miscellaneous / / May 02, 2021
If it seems to you that there is one continuous coronavirus around, you do not think.
In the middle of last year, some experts scaredFearing a 'Twindemic,' Health Experts Push Urgently for Flu Shots humanity with the coming autumn-winter "twindemia" - a double epidemic in which COVID-19 and influenza will combine. A really creepy scenario was presented: they say, in the fall, the number of hospitalizations will traditionally grow due to seasonal colds and this will finish off already overcrowded patients with coronavirus infection hospitals.
But the frightening predictions did not come true. The flu surprised researchers, and now they are making even darker predictions.
What happened to the flu
The short answer is that the cold season never really happened. For the first time in the history of observations, physicians are faced with the fact that the incidence flu - the most dangerous of seasonal infections is practically nonexistent.
If we analyze the situation that is happening now not only in Russia, but also in European countries and globally scale, we can safely say that this has not happened in the entire history of influenza surveillance, that is, since the 40s of the past century. This situation is unique and very interesting to follow.
Virologist announced the first epidemic season without influenza in the history of observations.Daria Danilenko
Head of the Department of Etiology and Epidemiology, A. BUT. Smorodintsev of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, for Interfax
Usually cold season in the Northern Hemisphere beginsHow COVID-19 is changing the cold and flu season around mid-December and lasts until late March - early April. But not this year. World Health Organization reportsFlu updatethat the incidence of influenza is low or off-season. That is, people become infected like in the summer.
WHO echoes the American Centers for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC): they callWeekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report the incidence of influenza is "unusually low". From October 1, 2020 to April 17, 2021, only 223 people were hospitalized due to this respiratory infection.Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report. Key Updates for Week 11, ending March 20, 2021 - against 19 932Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report. Key Updates for Week 12, ending March 21, 2020who were hospitalized in the same period last year.
This means that in the United States, the total number of hospitalizations for influenza has decreased by 99%.
The situation is similar in Russia. On January 15, the head of Rospotrebnadzor Anna Popova saidPopova said that there is no flu in Russia today: “There is no flu in the country, but today, let me remind you, is already the middle of January. There hasn't been such a year yet ”. By the middle of March, little has changed: according to the same Popova, cases of the disease were practically not recordedRospotrebnadzor does not expect a rise in the incidence of influenza in the spring.
Why is the flu gone
As expectedHow COVID-19 is changing the cold and flu season, the cause of disappearance is COVID-19. But not in the way supporters like to use conspiracy theories: Allegedly, the flu disappeared due to the fact that doctors attribute any sneeze to a coronavirus infection. No, everything is much simpler.
The situation looks as if anti-coronavirus measures were more effective against influenza than against COVID-19, which only in the Russian Federation is infected every day.WHO warns of the danger of COVID-19 amid a "soft plateau" in Russia over 8 thousand people.
Scientists still find it difficult to voice a complete list of reasons for the disappearance of influenza. But here are three that definitely got in the way virus freely transferred from one carrier to another.
Hygiene measures
Masks in public places and regular hand washing all help keep respiratory infections at bay.
Limiting personal contacts
Due to the pandemic, people are more likely to keep their distance from each other. In addition, many have switched to remote work, and schools have switched to distance learning. Because of this, people began to use public transport much less frequently. And the number of long-distance travel has decreased.
Mass vaccination against influenza
In anticipation of tweendemia, states have launched large-scale campaigns to popularize vaccinations. As a result, for example, in Russia, according toPopova said that there is no flu in Russia today Rospotrebnadzor, by the middle of winter, about 60% of citizens were vaccinated.
Will the flu come back
But this is a debatable question. On the one hand, the "low season" canHow COVID-19 is changing the cold and flu season destroy some strains. Perhaps forever.
On the other hand, as a result of a decrease in viral competition, new versions of influenza, for example, dangerous variants of swine or avian, may become active. People face such infections all the time, at the same agricultural fairs or when visiting zoos. However, due to the fact that our body is familiar with influenza, natural immunity helps to contain the infectious attack. But if the virus disappears for a few seasons, immunity will weaken - with unpleasant (possibly even catastrophic) consequences.
Another difficulty is that due to the canceled influenza season, scientists are not able toThe pandemic dramatically reduced flu cases. That could backfire predict which strains of the virus will be active by the next winter. This means that they will not be able to create really working vaccines. It will probably overlap with end of the pandemic coronavirus, when people happily throw off their masks and rush into each other's arms. The effect can be colossal: in the winter of 2021–2022, there will be not a seasonal outbreak of influenza, but a real explosion.
However, forecasts, as we have already found out above, are a thankless task. Whether events will develop according to a negative scenario or humanity will be lucky (how lucky it was to avoid tweendemia) - only time will tell.
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