Who will be left without a beard? Last interview before summing up the investment challenge

What's happening?

In the spring of 2019, Alexey Ponomar and Rodion Scriabin argued over who was the best investor. Both opened an investment account with Tinkoff Bank and deposited 100,000 rubles into it. Alexey made a bet on gold and funds, and Rodion decided that shares of large companies would help to get rich. The most expensive thing was at stake: a beard.

An investor who earns less money will have a freshly shaved face in just a couple of weeks. Despite the fact that in April the situation on the stock markets was not so hopeless, the participants failed to restore their positions. And one of them (this is Alexey Ponomar) is still in a less advantageous position than the other (and this is Rodion Scriabin).

It's time to find out how the guys feel before the final of the challenge. By the way, do not rush to empathize with Alexei or gloat with Rodion. At the end of the article, an investment expert from Tinkoff Bank answers our questions and tells whether the situation could suddenly change: the stock market is so unpredictable.

Interview with heroes

Alexey Ponomar

Staked on gold and funds.

Rodion Scriabin

I bought shares in large companies.

What's going on with your portfolio right now?

Alexei

Last week was more or less optimistic, everything grew slightly along with expectations from the OPEC deal. But this week, oil began to slide down, followed by the entire Russian stock market.

Rodion

It's storming. And quite a lot! Fluctuations in both directions are up to 5-7 thousand rubles a day. But if you do not take into account this storm, then we can say that nothing is happening.

What assets are the easiest to survive the crisis (if any)? Who is at the bottom?

Alexei

All my ETFs are in order now. Gold feels the best, of course. American IT and Chinese companies have resumed growth. All oil and Russian fell either to the level of purchases last year (PIK and Yandex), or even lower (surprise - Sberbank). The exception is MTS, which are growing rapidly after a serious failure in March.

Rodion

Lighter is a very abstract concept. If we talk about minimal losses and approximation to the norms of peacetime, then these are PayPal and VISA. It makes sense that payment systems are doing better now than Alibaba (probably).

What decision are you most proud of during the challenge? Where did you enter as a big investor? And where did you succumb to emotions, although you could just pour a whiskey and look into eternity?

Alexei

Oddly enough, my initial package was remarkably successful, especially when looking at the horizon of an entire year. It seems that it was really possible with him to go through the entire period and even become a winner in the end. It was a mistake to fuss and shift to unknown assets like NLMK, Baidu and Chevron, Kirill rightly pointed out to me. Well, it was still possible to move a little and get out of oil in early March, when I was not scared enough of the signs of an impending collapse.

Rodion

Probably what I'm most proud of is the financial consolidation of the portfolio. I calmed down, stopped twitching and began to wait - that is, I behave like tough. This is exactly what big investors do: they buy and do not worry. Most of all emotions were in the story with Alibaba: I was worried, did rash acts, but I had to just buy and wait. And I also had to buy Yandex, but something didn't work out for me.

Name 5 assets that you would buy right now if you could?

Alexei

The answer is simple: FAANG, Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Alphabet (formerly Google).

Rodion

Alibaba (more China is needed), Tinkoff (everything has fallen there, but it will surely grow back), and there are more large companies: Apple, Facebook, Disney, McDonald’s.

Would you like to extend the project?

Alexei

Yes and no. On the one hand, this is a very cool experience and I learned a lot. On the other hand, now I would prefer to play on my own and not compete with anyone. Well, do not shine successes and failures, respectively.

Rodion

For myself, I have already decided that investments are more profitable than deposits, and after the end of the project, I will start pouring a little into an investment account every month. And if we talk about this particular project - yes, I would! But I would raise rates and allocate more money. It would be interesting to see how the current "sale" will recoup in a year at a volume of at least 300,000 rubles.

What would you do if you suddenly decided to extend the challenge for another year?

Alexei

I would sell everything I don't like and start from scratch. 🙂

Rodion

I wouldn't spend all the money at once. I would split it into several rounds and buy a certain amount every month. This would help calmly buy what you need, and not sell good assets for this. It would be fun!

What do you think the outcome of the battle would have been if not for the pandemic?

Alexei

Back in February, we went almost nose to nose, so I do not exclude that I would have been the winner.

Rodion

Nothing would have changed. After all, my lucky horseshoe [sarcasm] and rabbit tail [undisguised irony] are with me!

Do you think everything has already been decided? Or something can change dramatically in two weeks?

Alexei

I can’t imagine what would have to happen for the alignment to change. Not only the markets played against me, but also the ruble exchange rate, and I was not ready to fight both factors within the framework of the game. Himself to blame. In real life, I bought dollars at 64, but for some reason I did not dare to transfer money from Russian shares.

Rodion

I do not believe in a quick recovery of the ruble. What is happening now looks more like a protracted recession. And, as Kirill already said, now it is not so much my shares that are winning as the ruble is losing to the dollar.

How will you shave your beard if you lose?

Alexei

So that the mask fits as tightly as possible. 🙂

Rodion

Sword bald!

Investment FAQ for beginners

What will happen in the investment market in the near future? If you have free money right now, what and when is it better to buy?

It is very difficult to predict. But there is definitely no need to wait for any special moment to invest money. Three months ago, the situation was stable, no one had any idea that the coronavirus would collapse the stock markets with such force.

The optimal strategy now is to invest gradually and in small amounts. If you constantly try to wait for the bottom, then you can miss the moment and not earn.

The position “it doesn't matter what to buy, but when it matters” is risky. It is very important to choose reliable companies. If you understand that a company has a low P / E, it looks cheap, can survive the crisis and not go bankrupt, then invest. Professional investors (but not hedge funds) do just that - they list companies and buy them at attractive prices.

Which stocks could rise more strongly after the coronavirus? What will happen to the shares of pharmaceutical giants?

In the coming months, volatility is likely to decrease and companies' businesses will begin to recover, as will the stock market. It will become clear how great the damage to business from quarantine is, and investors will start buying stocks that have fallen in price.

The pharmacists will be fine. Their shares are not overvalued by the market, there are dividends, this business is stable. A potential vaccine is another additional way to make money.

OPEC countries agree on an oil deal. If it happens, what will it mean for investors?

This will mean lower volatility in the oil market and a slow recovery in oil prices for several months.

In many of your comments, you say that investing is a long-term story. Long-term is how much: a year, two, five years? Or 10?

Most of the famous managers like Peter Lynch, Templeton, Neff were guided by an average of 5 years. But some stocks held even longer.

During the remaining time, something can radically change on the accounts of the participants? What will be the final of the challenge?

I still don't know what the final of the challenge will be. Fair! Everything, of course, can change in two weeks. The market is very volatile right now. For example, if the ruble exchange rate rises sharply, then Alexei's portfolio will grow, and Rodion's portfolio will fall.

If you also want to become an investor, read other materials about the challenge. There are many useful comments of the analyst and there is an analysis of all the investment mistakes of Alexey and Rodion.

Learn more about the challenge