The ruble collapsed. What you need to know if you don't want to lose your money

What happened

The ruble has fallen against the dollar and the euro. The sharp drop began on March 9th. On the morning of March 10, when the Moscow Exchange opened, the dollar was worth 72.17 rubles, the euro - 81.93 rubles. During the day, the rate went up and down. On March 11, the Central Bank establishedOfficial exchange rates for a given date, set daily for them the price is 72.02 and 81.86 rubles, respectively.

It is noteworthy that before the jump, the dynamics of currency prices were also unpleasant. On March 7, one dollar was worth 67.5 rubles, and on February 7 - 62.8. The minimum of 2020 was fixed on January 14 - 60.95 rubles. The story is similar with the euro: on March 7, they gave 75.85 rubles for it, on February 7 - 69.08.

Why did it happen

The exchange rate was affected by the sharp drop in oil prices. On the night of March 9, the cost of Brent crude fell by 31% and reached $ 31.43 per barrel. The last time this happened was in 2004. These are the consequences of the failed OPEC + deal.

An agreement to limit oil production expires on April 1. In early March, at the OPEC summit, the largest oil-producing countries were going to agree on an additional reduction in fuel production in order to maintain higher prices. However, Russia did not agree to this, and the market reacted immediately.

Another factor is an epidemic coronavirus, due to which the volume of oil consumption decreased.

Experts - real and couch - are building theories about why this happened. It is much more important for ordinary people to understand what to expect and what to do with money.

What will happen next

Nobody knows for sure, simply because it is impossible.

The global financial and commodity markets are under stress. The general sentiment is determined by the dynamics of the coronavirus epidemic in the world and the price war between the main oil producers. The first factor affects the level of risk. Traditionally, if risks grow, this is bad for emerging market currencies, including the ruble. The second factor in general for Russia is decisive for many economic and financial parameters.

Oleg Bogdanov, QBF Lead Analyst

The situation does not look very positive. Earlier, the decline in oil prices and, accordingly, the fall of the ruble ended in a crisis. The analytical credit rating agency considersACRA Financial Stress Index for Russiathat such a scenario is likely.

At the same time, the Russian budget is now better protected from low oil prices than before. The Ministry of Finance has already announcedAnnouncement. On the mechanism of fiscal rule when oil prices fall below the baseline on the sale of foreign currency to compensate for the fall in oil prices below the threshold of 42.4 dollars per barrel. This measure will make it possible to compensate for the revenues lost due to the low cost of fuel. In addition, less foreign products were imported.Over the past 5 years, Russia has reduced food imports by a third, including thanks to the notorious import substitution.

However, even if it is possible to do without a monstrous crisis, there will still be a negative effect. Prices may rise - mostlyExpensive, not rich: how the new ruble exchange rate will affect prices and inflation for children's products, clothing and footwear, electronics and household appliances, medicines.

How much and how long this will continue depends on oil prices and the spread of the coronavirus. American bank Goldman Sachs suggestsNext six months likely ‘painful’ for oil, says Goldman Sachs ’Jeffrey Curriethat the next six months will be problematic. And $ 30 oil is included in this scenario. But if the coronavirus epidemic subsides, then the situation can improve much faster.

The exchange rate, accordingly, will depend on these events.

I think both oil prices and the coronavirus are not short-term topics. They will remain in effect for the next three months. Therefore, the ruble will decline against major currencies. It can be assumed that if oil prices fall to $ 30 per barrel, the dollar value will remain at the level of 75-77 rubles, and if it drops to 25 - 82-85 rubles.

Oleg Bogdanov

If the situation does not begin to improve in the near future, we will be able to see the dollar in the corridor of 75–79 rubles. Most likely, after 80 rubles, the Central Bank will intervene and bring the falling ruble to life with its interventions. But so far this measure is clearly premature.

Igor Fainman, Financial Advisor

What to do

With savings

For starters, don't panic. News and general hysterical sentiment certainly make this process difficult. But, perhaps, in reality, for you, everything has not changed much yet. According to pollsSavings of Russians, 65% of Russian families do not have savings. If you belong to the majority, you could not buy currency at a low price, because you had nothing to do with it.

You will be affected by the increase in prices due to changes in the exchange rate. But there is nothing you can do about it. So is it worth it to be nervous. Solve problems as they arise.

If you have savings, the size is important. The average bank deposit per Russian isThe average deposit of Russians was 200 thousand rubles 200 thousand. If you had time to buy dollars for 60 rubles, then now they would cost 36 thousand more in ruble terms. The amount is pleasant, but not dizzying.

When you have dealt with your panic, you can think about further actions.

With rubles

If you don't have a time machine (and then it would be better to go to 2012 and buy a dollar for another 30 rubles), postpone the purchase currency.

It's too late to buy dollars. This should have been done in January, when everyone was trumpeting about de-dollarization.

Igor Faynman

Despite the fact that the ruble may fall further, the opposite process is also possible. So there is a risk of buying a currency at its peak and then not selling it even at that price. However, the final decision is yours, just remember the risks.

With currency

While the holders of ruble stashes are nervous, the owners of dollars and euros are rubbing their hands. Their savings have grown, and for them this is a chance to sell the currency for much more than the purchase price. This can be done, but without unnecessary haste.

The most optimal thing would be to divide your currency asset into 10 parts and sell it gradually with an increase in the rate. This will give you the most effective average selling price.

Igor Faynman

But you can do nothing, especially if you are far from playing with courses. Your position in the current situation looks quite good.

With shares

Everything is clear with the securities of foreign companies: if there are reasons to worry, they are not related to the ruble exchange rate. It is much more interesting how to deal with the shares of Russian organizations. Experts believe that you can make good money here when the panic subsides a little.

When the hysteria is over, buying the fallen stocks of Russian companies can bring you not only speculative gains on growth, but also good dividends for 2019.

Igor Faynman

If you already have stocks, it is better not to make sudden movements for now and wait for the hysteria to end. Or, as with dollars, make sharp movements, but be aware of the risks.

What not to do

Throwing away all your savings

It is one thing if you were planning to buy expensive imported goods. It is quite possible that you will have time to do this before the price tags in the stores have not yet been re-glued. It is quite different when you spend all your money in a panic. First, you become the owner of a bunch of unnecessary things. Secondly, if the crisis does break out, you will not have the money to wait out difficult period.

Give in to speculation

Panic is also an opportunity to make money on those who have lost the ability to reasonably assess the situation.

On March 10, banks actively offered to apply for mortgageto lock in a low percentage. This marketing move is manipulative: the Central Bank does not yet have objective reasons for a sharp rise in the key rate.

Igor Faynman

So, if you tend to succumb to emotions, try to pull yourself together and calm down.