10 questions about coronavirus that still have no answer

While the coronavirus outbreak and its associated restrictions seem to have lasted forever, the SARS ‑ CoV ‑ 2 virus is still new to humanity and needs to be studied. “For many, this is the hardest part. People think that we should have concrete answers, says epidemiologist Saskia Popescu. “But in reality we are trying to build a bridge and walk across it at the same time. This is a new disease and a new situation for us. "

1. How many people actually got infected?

By data as of May 25, there are 5.5 million confirmed cases of coronavirus infection in the world and more than 346 thousand deaths. But many experts agree that these are understated numbers. We don't have enough tests and other tools to track every infection. There are potentially millions of undiagnosed patients in the world.

The likelihood that we will never know the exact answer to this question is quite high. Scientists are still debating how many lives were claimed by the Spanish flu epidemic in 1918-1920.

However, getting an accurate answer is very important. If it turned out that

gets infected there are many more people than is known now, but the number of deaths is the same, which would mean that the death rate from the coronavirus is lower than we thought. And if they found out that there are few unnoticed cases or that there are actually more deaths, then it would be clear that maintaining strict isolation measures is justified.

The matter is complicated by the fact that some become carriers of the virus or get a positive test result and at the same time have no symptoms. This means that there is a possibility that many are infected without knowing it. Previously, they were considered asymptomatic carriers, but, according to preliminary dataCoronavirus Disease Outbreak in Call Center, South Korea, most all the same, over time, some signs of the disease appear. If further research confirms this, then not many cases remain unnoticed.

While scientists are figuring it out, you should be careful. Horrific outbreaks in Italy, Spain and the United States have already proven that the coronavirus can be very dangerous. The question now is how much, and not whether it is possible to ignore the situation and live carefree.

2. What distancing measures work best?

Many countries, going into quarantine, closed everything they could. This created additional difficulties for scientists: it is unclear exactly what measures are slowing down the spread of the virus. Banning public events? Air travel restrictions? Moving to remote work?

According to Natalie Dean, professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida, it is most dangerous when people are in a room close to each other for a long time. Nothing else can be said with complete certainty.

To find answers, scientists examine the experience of countries and cities that have chosen different paths. South Korea and Germany, for example, are very careful aboutGermany is reopening. Cautiously to exit quarantine. Monitoring this process, as well as the second wave of the virus in Asian countries will help to understand what exactly increases the risk of its spread.

The results determine which restrictions to leave and which to remove. “It is impossible to simply suspend the life of an industrial civilization before the advent of a vaccine, because this very vaccine depends on industrial civilization, ”says Amesh Adalia, a researcher at the Center for Health Safety at Jones University Hopkins.

3. How actively do children spread the virus?

At first it was not clear if the children were getting sick at all. Over time, we became convinced that they get sick, and some of them have COVID-19 abnormallyfor example get inflamedChildren Are Falling Ill With a Baffling Ailment Related to Covid-19 walls of arteries. And although in general children get sick less, it cannot be said that they are safe.

What is still unknown is how actively children are spreading the coronavirus. If it turns out that there are fewer adults, schools can be reopened. Perhaps the number of students in classes will decrease, desks will be located farther from each other, and changes for different groups will be at different times. In any case, this will be a relief for the parents, who will be able to work quietly (and just keep their sanity).

4. Why were there serious outbreaks in some places and not in others?

For example, why does New York have moreWhy New York has 14 times as many coronavirus deaths as California sick than in California? And more than Tokyo? In some cases, the answers are quite comforting: where we started act earlier and more energetic and better results. But this is not always true.

Much depends on luck. For example, somewhere one person became a super-distributor and infected a lot of people, but somewhere not.

The age and health status of people, the frequency of public transport use, and population density are all factors that influence the magnitude of the outbreak.

But sometimes this data does not help to find the answer to the question. Let's go back to Tokyo and New York. In the capital of Japan, the population density is higher and people use public transport more often. In theory, the situation there should be more difficult than in New York, but this is not the case. Even though they later began to acceptJapan struggles to get a grip on social distancing measures to combat the virus.

Obviously, there are some factors that have not yet been identified. Perhaps the case in maskswhich have long been widespread in Japan. Or there it is better in compliance with sanitary standards. Or the general population is healthier. When the answers emerge, it will become clearer to us how cities and countries respond to new outbreaks of coronavirus and other infections in the future.

5. How will summer weather affect the virus?

If hot, humid weather alone could cope with the coronavirus, there would be no cases in Louisiana, Ecuador and Singapore. However, high temperature, humidity and UV radiation do seem to doRapid Expert Consultation on SARS ‑ CoV ‑ 2 Survival in Relation to Temperature and Humidity and Potential for Seasonality for the COVID ‑ 19 Pandemic (April 7, 2020) harm to the virus. In the heat, the outer lipid membrane of the virus is weakened. In humid air, droplets of saliva, which may contain viral particles, quickly settle to the ground. And UV radiation has long been knownCan you kill coronavirus with UV light? by their disinfectant properties.

Everything is complicated by the fact that the population does not have immunity against the new coronavirus. “Although we see some influence of the weather, the high level of vulnerability of the population overshadows its effect,” explains Maurizio Santillana of Harvard Medical School. “Most are still highly susceptible to the virus. So even if temperature and humidity could play a role, there is still not enough immunity. "

6. Are parks and beaches open to the public?

Outdoor locations are less dangerous in terms of the spread of the virus. is he carried over droplets of saliva from infected people, and in well-ventilated areas, the chances of these droplets falling on another person are reducedCOVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020. If hot weather and UV radiation do their part, it may be safe to go out to parks and beaches. It would be a welcome respite for all self-isolated.

But questions still remain. How far apart should people be in such places? Is it possible to meet with friends and relatives there? Is it safe for people at high risk to come there? While there are still recommendations to observe in public places distance 1.5 meters, wear masks and avoid large crowds.

7. Is long-term immunity developing?

Perhaps it will only last a few weeks or months, or maybe several years. This is not unusual: there is no long-term immunity against flu and colds either.

There are already reports of repeated cases of infection coronavirus. It is not entirely clear if they are related to false positive test results or something else.

If it turns out that immunity against coronavirus is only temporary, there is a risk that outbreaks will recur in the future.

Even a vaccine may only protect us for a while. However, this does not mean that the next outbreaks will be as violent as the current one. Think about the flu. We now have vaccines and drugs that make this infection less dangerous. In addition, the organisms of people who have been ill may become more resistant to the virus.

8. Can I get the vaccine in 12-18 months?

The reality of such terms is often spoken in the media, but not all experts share this opinion. “It is very optimistic to think that we will receive the vaccine this fall or even next year,” says epidemiologist Josh Michaud.

Time is a very important factor in vaccine development. Scientists need months to understand if the product really protects for a long time and if it has dangerous side effects. It is important to test how what works in the laboratory will behave in the real world.

If you rely solely on the creation of a vaccine, it will take months or even years to implement social distancing measures. And there is always the possibility that a working vaccine will not be received at all.

9. Will there be a cure for COVID-19?

Even if the vaccine does not work out, scientists can create drugs that will make the coronavirus less dangerous. This has already happened with HIV. Over time, drugs have appeared that fightHIV Treatment: The Basics with the pathogen of AIDS and slows down its spread, and also reduces the likelihood of passing the infection to another person.

Such drugs for coronavirus would be very useful. Including people with other diseases that increase the risk severe course of COVID-19. But so far we do not know many important things. For example, is the risk really influenced by obesity or by diabetes, which is common in obese people? How does all this relate to each other? The answers will help to understand the needs of different people, and the availability of drugs will significantly reduce the risks of complications and death.

10. Do we need to make more ventilators?

At the beginning of the epidemic, everyone thought that many more such devices would be needed than were available. It was believed that they are necessary for patient carewho have difficulty breathing. But the forecasts were not confirmed. It looks like social distancing helped slow the spread of the virus, so even places like New York, which had the hardest time, did.Many field hospitals went largely unused, will be shut down so.

It is also possible that there is lessVentilators Are No Panacea For Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients benefits than originally thought. If patients are connected to them for too long, it can even harmRespiratory Support in Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Patients, with a Focus on Resource-Limited Settings. But it takes time to understand these issues accurately.

So the situation with ventilators twofold. On the one hand, this remedy may be less effective than we thought. On the other hand, we may not need a lot of expensive and complicated devices to help the sick.

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It is hard to realize that there are no definitive answers to the questions on which people's lives depend. This uncertainty only increases the fear and anxiety that we all experience. Therefore, it is now especially important not to forget about responsibility and caution. And be ready to adapt if things don't go our way.