Why you can't underestimate the danger of coronavirus

In Sweden, where there is no quarantine, every tenth infected die.

To counter the COVID-19 epidemic, most European countries have introduced quarantines, closed public places and forced citizens to self-isolate. But one of them, Sweden, tookSweden bucks global trend with experimental virus strategy less drastic measures that were more advisory in nature.

The Swedish government has banned public gatherings for more than 50 people and closed universities and higher education institutions. Restaurants and bars were ordered to serve people only at tables, not at counters. And the workers were advised to stay at home whenever possible.

Schools for children under 16 remained open. People continued to move freely and use public transport.

The Swedish government hoped in this way to avoid the economic downturn it faced states that have closed public places, entertainment centers, businesses and educational institutions. This strategy to counter the coronavirus was based on three assumptions.

• It was believed that the entire population of the country was conscious and responsible enough to maintain social distancing without incentives or punishments.
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• The Swedes assumedArchitect of Sweden's no-lockdown strategy insists it will pay offthat a person infected with coronavirus will get sick and develop immunity. Therefore, citizens will not be re-infected, and so society will soon become insensitive to COVID-19.
• Sweden relied on a relatively low population density to contain the spread of infection.

But the chosen strategy did not bring the desired result. Daily COVID-19 mortality per capita in Sweden remains at an order of magnitudeDaily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths higher than in neighboring Finland and Norway. Moreover, almost halfCoronavirus: What’s going wrong in Sweden’s care homes? of all those killed by the virus in Sweden are residents of nursing homes.

And although the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus infection in Europe is declining, in Sweden, on the contrary, it is growingSweden to Ease Travel Curbs Despite Signs of Rising Coronavirus Infections. All because to support social isolation without fines and coercion in the country did not work. Some Swedes did indeed voluntarily stay at home when the government advised them to do so. But most continued to behave as usual.

According to reportsFind out how people move around the city amid the COVID-19 pandemic Google, the number of visits to public places, such as shops and parks, in Sweden decreased by only 16-17%. While in Norway, Finland and Denmark, citizens were in quarantine.

Population density is also unlikely to affect a country's ability to contain COVID-19. Studies in the USA, China and Europe have shownCOVID-19 death rate vs. Population density, Opinion | The Coronavirus Isn't Worse in Cities Because of Deisity, A Month of Coronavirus in New York City: See the Hardest-Hit Areasthat residents of the most populated regions are not necessarily infected more than others. SoUrban Density Is Not an Enemy in the Coronavirus Fight: Evidence from ChinaIn China, the cities with the highest rates of coronavirus infection have relatively low population densities.

The assumption that the Swedes will acquire the so-called herd immunity faster was not confirmed.

In early May, Sweden's chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, who developed the described strategy, saidSweden bucks global trend with experimental virus strategythat by the end of the month, 40% of Stockholm's population will be immune to the virus. But as of May 25, antibodies against COVID-19 have appearedStockholm Won’t Reach Herd Immunity In May, Sweden’s Chief Epidemiologist Says less than 30% of city residents. Not to mention the fact that the effectiveness of antibodies is still in question and it is not known whether the body can become resilient to the coronavirus.

So, having relied on herd immunity and relying solely on the conscientiousness of its citizens, Sweden miscalculated. As a result, as of June 8, there are more than 44 thousand cases in the country and 4.6 thousand deaths, that is, every tenth person dies. For comparison, in Russia, 476 thousand infected with COVID-19 account for almost 6 thousand deaths.

Coronavirus. Number of infected:

7 136 488

in the world

476 658

in Russia

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