"It's not a lack of resources and their distribution" - Sergei Kapitsa about the future of mankind
A Life / / December 19, 2019
Sergey Kapitsa
Physicist, educator, editor in chief of the magazine "World of Science" and host of the popular science program "Obvious - unbelievable."
People are always worried about how many and how much should be that all live well. However, according to Sergei Kapitsa opinion, resources like food and water we always had and will be missed. The problem is that these resources are not always shared fairly.
In order to solve the global problems of peace and balance, you start with the central issues - population growth.
How many people should live on the Earth?
There is a demographic theory: the greater the mass of the body, the less individuals. Therefore, little elephant and the mouse a lot. According to this theory, people should be about 100 thousand people. However, the increase did not stop at that point: first, he was invisible, then blasting. And now we are already 7 billion.
Why population growth continue?
Founder demographics, Thomas Malthus proposed this suggestion: humanity, like other species, is growing exponentially. The growth ends when the resources for this end. That is, the more people you already have on this planet, the more children they give birth to and bring up. However, growth will slow, when it becomes less food or water. The growth of the majority of the abdomen is really exponential. But it is different people.
The people are different from animals?
Hyperbolic growth of mankind: very slow at first and accelerating at the end. This is because our main resource is not food, and knowledge. We do not live alone: to breed, feed and, most importantly, share their knowledge. In humans, unlike animals, there is progress.
And whether eating such a huge number of people will be enough?
Yes, food enough for all. Sergey cites the example of the calculations, which he spent with his colleagues in the "Club of Rome". To date, even the country, such as Argentina, can provide food all the rest of the Earth population.
It's not a lack of resources and their distribution.
Sergey Kapitsa
What's wrong with population growth?
It breaks the link between generations. Historical periods are becoming shorter, because the story is not measured by astronomical time and generations. During each period of history lived about 10 billion people. Now 10 billion live and die in just half a century. Historical period is replaced with each new generation.
It is fashionable to complain about the communication gap between generations, in the dying traditions - but perhaps it is a natural consequence of the acceleration of history. If each generation lives in their own era, the legacy of previous eras it may simply not useful.
Sergey Kapitsa
As global concerns and the war affect the population growth?
Virtually nothing. Population growth is recovering steadily. For example, in medieval Europe, the plague claimed two-thirds of the population. But after 100 years of growth again recovered. The same thing happened after the First and Second World Wars.
Hence, growth will never stop?
Already stopped. According to the formula of population growth, by now we should have been $ 10 billion. In 1995, it fixed the maximum rate of growth of the population of Russia, and then growth is almost stopped. Today, the growth of China's population will stabilize. Earlier similar processes began in the most developed countries, such as Sweden, Norway and Denmark.
And what does it mean?
Will no longer be unrestrained growth. It began the demographic transition, which means that humanity will change. Progress will occur, but anyway.
The physicist would call a phase transition occurs: you put a pot of water on the fire, and for a long time nothing happens, only single bubbles rise. And then suddenly everything boils. This is how humanity: there is a slow accumulation of internal energy, and then everything takes on a new look.
Sergey Kapitsa
We live in a time of transition. This is dangerous?
Most likely, in the demographic changes rooted causes of the financial and moral crisis, insecurity and stress of life of society as a whole. So we respond to the new state. On the other hand, the less developed countries are beginning to catch up with developed countries. Redistribution of wealth and resources worldwide.
How long will this transition?
According to Kapitsa, statistics and mathematical model indicate that the width of the transition is less than 100 years. But we must bear in mind that in many countries it begins at different times. In Europe, and it almost ended in Russia has just begun in the Islamic countries.
And what will happen next?
Kapitsa believes that this transition will take place more or less peacefully. But here ready-made recipes and absolutely accurate predictions can not be.
History - as the weather. There is no bad weather. We live under such circumstances, and we must accept and understand the circumstances.
Sergey Kapitsa