How to change the world, when the Earth's population will reach 10 billion

By 2050 the world will inhabit about 10 billion people. Science journalist Charles C. Mann considering current projections of the population of the planet will provide for their basic needs and how we can avoid disastrous climate change.

What is the crux of the problem

For many thousands of years of natural selection, parasites, and lack of resources hindered the excessive growth of the populations of all animals, including humans. But with the development of technology people have broken this balance. The planet's population is increasing too quickly, and in the near future, it may be the lack of water, food and energy.

What are the future scenarios

According to scientists as to how to prevent these problems, different: Researchers have split into so-called witches and prophets. The former believe that science with proper use will help to avoid collapse. The latter do not agree with this, and advocate strict control of key ecological processes, violation of which can put lives of all living things at risk.

Development of wizards path

Technomages imagine gipereffektivnye glittering metropolis, surrounded by large areas of pristine land and independence from natural resources. The energy they provide a compact nuclear power plants, food - with robotic ekofermy ultraproduktivnymi GMO cropsAnd water - desalination plants.

All 10 billion people packed into a super dense, but easily walkable cities - urbanized world highest human aspirations and freedom.

Development along the path of the prophets

Prophets dream of small interconnected communities with the most humane treatment and a minimum corporate control. Most people there live in rural areas, used local solar and wind power plant. Water is collected from the sediments and re-use it. Food supply the population of a small farm with orchards and root crops, and not unproductive grasses.

But first of all, these people change their habits. Instead, they get the machine to work on the eco-friendly train. Do not stand under the shower for half an hour, eat a little, and mostly vegetarian food. The prophets believe that respect for the natural restrictions will lead to a more free, democratic and healthy lifestyle.

What is wrong with the existing forecasts

Both sides cast great doubt on the approaches of their opponents.

arguments of the prophets

1. Industrial agriculture causes soil erosion, coastal dead zones creates and destroys the soil microbiome.
2. Giant desalination plants produce a huge mountain of toxic salts, which can not be recycled.
3. Security sverhproduktivnyh GMO crops, which plans to feed mankind, scientists can not prove for 20 years. They still take a hostile reception.
4. The willingness of society to the construction of nuclear power plants less and less, so the use of clean carbon-free energy, which is to stop climate change, a big question.

arguments wizards

1. This way of life will lead to limitation, decline and widespread poverty.
2. Agriculture will only increase the effect on the nature and force people to work for a pittance.
3. Technology necessary to create a local solar power, do not yet exist.
4. Reusing water will slow down the development. Her savings will give nothing, because even in developed cities quarter of fresh water is lost due to leaking pipes.

alternative solutions

To create a social movement must unite the efforts of wizards and prophets to both sides accepted the fundamental ideas of each other.

We must recognize that nuclear power It is harmless and does not emit carbon, and uranium mines are awful. I must agree with the GMO crop safety and to recognize that industrial agriculture gives rise to environmental problems. It is necessary to develop breeding of trees and root crops that are much more productive crops, but require less water and do not lead to erosion.

Only by joint efforts of wizards and prophets can be experienced a population explosion, keep the biomes and provide the world's population with sufficient water, food and energy.

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