35 years ago, science fiction Isaac Asimov predicted what would happen in 2019

35 years ago, on the eve of 1984, the Canadian edition of The Star, impressed dystopia Orwell's "1984", asked the famous science fiction writer Isaac Asimov to write an article, the forecast for 2019 th.

Year was chosen. Orwell's masterpiece was published in 1949 - 35 years before. Journalists seemed curious to find out how to change our world even 35 years later. Azimov also became interested and gave his version of developments.

Now we have finally reached the point where the famous writer of prophecy can be checked.

that came true

From the point of view of Asimov, humanity on the road by 2019-mu had to disturb the three most important ideas:

1. The probability of a nuclear war.
2. Mass computerization.
3. Use of outer space.

Regarding the first point, the air was pre-perestroika years, when relations between the two superpowers - the USSR and the United States - reached the boiling point. The world was on the brink of disaster, but a futurist still prefer to remain optimistic.

If the United States and the Soviet Union will continue to cling to each other, it is useless to discuss what life will be like in 2019. In this case, only a few of us, our children and grandchildren will live, and I see no need to describe in detail the global suffering. So let's assume that the nuclear

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war will not.

Isaac Asimov

Computerization Azimov also predicted surprisingly well, although in the early 1980s to the massive development of the sphere few believed. And the fiction of his prophecy made a number of additional findings, which are also true today. If you touch this subject in more detail, here will turn out.

1. mass computerization

Her firm Azimov called inevitable. According to him, by 2019 th society reaches the point where simply can not exist without computers to be used both in the economy and industry, and in every home.

Those countries that are lagging behind in this regard, would suffer as it is obvious that their governments themselves start demanding computing, they need weapons today.

Isaac Asimov

This prophecy was clearly fulfilled: today the PC is in almost every home, even in third world countries.

2. The disappearance of some professions

This fact, in terms of Asimov is the inevitable consequence of computerization. But this is not all happy.

Before the industrial revolution, the vast majority of humanity engaged in agriculture and allied service work. When the beginning of industrialization, the shift from farm to factory, was swift and painful. With the computerization of the transition from the factory to the new things will be even faster and, as a result, even more painful.

Isaac Asimov

It's not even that computers take away people's jobs. Simply no longer needed in a number of professions: any bureaucracy, any assembly, any mechanical repetitive work will be automated. They will perform and manage computers robots, moreover will do so more quickly and successfully.

Predicting too came to pass: 2019 th is metered a number of professions, such as telephonists and stenographers, and by 2020 the first expected the disappearance from the market of dozens of other specialties. And, as predicted by Asimov, it is connected exactly with the automation and the development of computer control systems.

3. Changing concepts of education

The advent of computers and the associated changes in the labor market, according to the writer's opinion, will require radical changes in the approach to the school (and further) education. First of all, it should be computerized. If the pre-industrial man could live contentedly, not owning a diploma, then in 2019 it will be impossible without the ability to deal with computers and navigate the new high-tech world.

Futurist predicted the disappearance of teachers. Their 2019 may well replace computers, and the children will receive education at home - not at the standard curriculum, and at their own pace and according to their own interests.

In general, this prediction can also be considered if you do not come true, the active self-fulfilling. The principles of childrearing and education dramatically changed, With more and more parents prefer the so-called distance learning online schools.

4. Growing environmental problems

Consequences of human irresponsibility in terms of waste and pollution over time will become more and more obvious and unbearable. Attempts to deal with this will become more strained. It is hoped that by 2019 the progress in technology will provide us with tools to help reverse environmental degradation.

Isaac Asimov

The first half of this prediction is obviously true: environmental problems are really growing in the world. But with the second, unfortunately, got a bobble: modern scientists have not been able to offer a way out of this crisis.

That it has not come true (but may still come to pass)

There are other moments in which human society is progressing more slowly than expected insightful fiction. Here they are.

1. Robots in every home

Azimov as the author of Laws of Robotics on the eve of 1984, was convinced: "Mobile computerized object, it - the robot has entered the industry. In the next generation it will penetrate into every home. "

So far this has not happened. Unless, of course, were not truly "mobile computerized objects" robotic vacuum cleaners, coffee makers and kettles smart with Internet access.

2. Successful space exploration

By 2019, according to Asimov predicted to mankind with new forces will return to the moon, and even create a huge manned station there, whose staff will extract minerals and produce construction materials are needed for the construction of other objects in space. Also, science fiction imagined orbiting global production (this would reduce environmental pollution environment on the planet) and the creation of a vast cosmic power to collect solar energy and transmit it back to Earth.

But something went wrong.

3. World peace

The need to address the social, educational, environmental, space issues, on which depends the existence of our civilization, is to get mankind to unite.

Will increase co-operation between nations and groups within nations - not because of the sudden rise of idealism or decency, but because of the cold-blooded awareness: the lack of cooperation meant death for all.

Isaac Asimov

So thought Asimov, predicting even the creation of a world government similarity. Alas, in this matter the legendary science fiction again proved to be too optimistic.