Personal opinion of why the days are numbered iPod classic

Rumors that Apple has decided to withdraw from the production of classic iPods, if you believe the rumors themselves sources, based on facts. The numbers do not lie, confirms the author of "Arstehniki" Jackie Chan, but the question "When?" Everyone is responsible for his own.

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In October, iPod classic will celebrate his 12th birthday, and twelve years things had gone very well. He became one of the two ideas that brought Apple out of a steep dive, and iPod is still one of the most significant products of the company.

However, this does not mean that the iPod OK sold - at least when compared with the performance of more modern models of "apple" player. Ten years after the announcement of the first iPod, sales of the entire line of iPods (including iPod touch) have dropped significantly. Actually, the fall began in mid-2009, and since then, except for spikes in the holiday shopping season, a negative trend is maintained.

Is not it time for Apple to define the time of departure for one of the oldest designs of iPod, which does buy in small quantities? I would argue that it is time. Although, of course, if your name is not Tim D. Cook, you are unlikely to know the exact answer to my question. All my life watching Apple, and I believe that the typical product strategy Apple - along with changes in the design, the need for which is already brewing - includes sending fertilizer for a long time "perespevshie" model iPod.

Back in 2011, I raised the question of sending iPod classic well-deserved rest. It is clear that if nothing happened: it is obvious that in 2011 Apple was not ready to take this step, and now certainly find occasion to again postpone the decision. This lack of assumptions: they can always be wrong. However, decades of observations of the behavior of Apple, as well as numerous interviews with current and former employees the company suggests to me that we've still will witness the care of the iPod, and it will happen sooner than you think.

Why (some) iPods must leave now

Just the results of the last fiscal quarter, Apple and become the reason why this subject again surfaced. In the third quarter of 2013th, the company sold 4.57 million iPods - 2.18 million units less compared to the same quarter last year. The trend from year to year is saved. In the III quarter of 2012 it sold 6.75 million iPods in the III quarter of 2011 - 7.54 million, in the III quarter of 2010 - 9.41 million.

The only period when sales were even worse - it's fiscal fourth quarter, but this is understandable: People are waiting for the new models that are expected to appear on the eve of the festive season shopping. I think that in mid-September, Apple will report sales of about 4 million players. And since the company has consistently emphasized that the iPod touch is one-half of all iPod sales, we can assume, that in the next fiscal quarter iPod classic, iPod nano and iPod shuffle together it will be sold around 2 million devices. If hypothetically only iPod classic - of course, it really does not work, since Apple never breaks the line of figures for individual products - the number will probably be much less.

No matter what angle you look, the fourth quarter of 2013 show the lowest volume iPod sales since the introduction of iPhone. A "Yabblu" is not peculiar to long to keep afloat obsolete products - if it is obvious trends change, Apple prefers stay ahead of these trends (a vivid example - how to remove the floppy disk drives of the first aimag, when the technology was still very popular). And in recent years, and Steve Jobs and Tim Cook comfortable with the fact, the more new products of the company absorbed a share of sales of older (an excellent example - iOS-device). And the question is: at what point sales will be so low that the cost of production will exceed revenues iPod classic?

There is another factor that should also be taken into account. Apple aggressively translates all their mobile devices on the Lightning connector, replacing the 30-pin connector, used in the iPod in 2003. In 2012, the company revised the release schedule even iPads, when announced the fourth-generation iPad and iPad mini with Lightning-connectors. It is very likely that Apple quickly translates into Lightning only promising products, but in model with a low level of sales, such as iPod classic, is simply not profitable to make such change.

Why any iPod to stay... for now

Of course, this is just a theory, which remains a theory. The problem is that it can be misleading if the facts emerge, while Apple only known. The same result may occur as with the predictions of the imminent "apple" the TV.

The reason that this year Apple can leave any of the "old" iPod, it may be that these devices continue to generate revenue. A small income, but the demand for these devices is still there. Still, we now live in a post-dzhobsovskuyu era, and Tim Cook simply can not emerge a picture of its product strategy. If so, the approval of the historical behavior of the company in this case may not apply if the product still brings at least some income.

Another example of where the given number of fail - Mack. Despite the decline in demand for iPods, in absolute terms, the "apple" of players still sold more than Macs every quarter. Last quarter, it sold 3.8 million Macs, and although Apple has consistently emphasized its serious related to the computer part of its business, sales curve Macs either flat or slightly sloping in the negative.

In the foreseeable future, Apple will continue to work on the Mac line, despite a "low" sales, compared to iOS-devices. A whole range of models of Macs regularly updated, with new processors, ports, display, Wi-Fi and even the exterior design. Yes, Apple is likely to earn more on every Mac than on each iPod classic, but the company is clearly It has shown that it tends to keep the products even at low sales volume, having on other reasons (hello, Mac Pro!). So if a company has its own reasons to save iPods, she would do it.

When will this happen?

When Apple sends to rest some of his old iPod, this year, the next or the year after - we can only guess. Likely to iPod classic and iPod shuffle will hold still long enough, because they are much like the current iPod nano (only less functional). However, one might argue, they say, is the iPod nano is similar to the "shuffle" - only a little more than functions. :)

In any case, I still believe that the days of "non-ayosnyh" iPod numbered. I do not be surprised if this year the race will remove most unprofitable Soup, although Apple may well still their "feed" in the next few years. Of course, every time I pick up this topic, I send letters to the post office audiophiles, telling us how they score their eyeballs 160 gigs iPods. My answer to them is the same: "I'm glad for you." But maybe this time should take care of backing up the "classics." After all, are not they exist forever.

— Jackie Chan, ArsTechnika.