Why do we believe the rumors and guesses more than statistics

You have made the seasonal flu shot and the sick. And acquaintances also complained of feeling unwell. Did you know that, according to statisticsFlu vaccine. WHO position paper, Vaccination against influenza may reduce the risk of disease by 70-90% and save hundreds of thousands of lives from death. But now you do not particularly trust her.

And here you see a man in the parking lot. He is dressed all in black, he has a lot of tattoos, from the headphone hear heavy rock. What do you think he came on a bike or by car? Most likely, you did not hesitate to choose the former. Although in reality the probability of a second higher, because vehicles on the road a lot more. Or maybe he does a cyclist.

In both cases it is a mistake base percentage - cognitive biasesWhich are subject to all people.

What is the essence of the cognitive distortions

Due to an error base percentage, we tend to ignore the statistics and general data. Instead, we rely on personal experience and special cases that occur in their environment.

For the first time this phenomenon is described by psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in the 90-ies. They conducted a studyProspect theory: An analysis of decision under riskIn which the participants briefly describe one man: he loves puzzles, he mathematical mind, and he is an introvert.

Then the participants were divided into two groups, one was told that this man was chosen from among 70 engineers and 30 lawyers. The other group was told the opposite: the sample consisted of 30 engineers and 70 lawyers. The question was one for all: what is the probability that this person - engineer?

Many of those interviewed agreed that such a small description sufficient to identify the profession of the hero. But most still are inclined to think that he is an engineer.

The survey carried out in another way: Now the participants did not initially provide any information about the person. If their answers were based on the total probability: if a group more engineers, therefore, the probability that the character is also an engineer, more. And if the group more lawyers, it is likely, and he is a lawyer. From this we can conclude that, when we have no specific information, we have nothing to confuse.

Why do we not always trust statistics

In this particular case it seemsThe Base Rate Fallacy in Probability JudgmentsThat the overall evidence is not reliable: they can not be taken into account all the factors that influence our situation right now. In addition, they do not correspond to the judgment, which we have already done.

scientists have linkedOn the psychology of prediction this mistake of thinking with the representativeness heuristic - the property man to draw conclusions on the basis of stereotypes and personal judgment.

Worsen the situation, and other cognitive distortions.

This tendency toward negativity, in which bad news person perceives and remembers better and confirmation biasWhen he selects the information that corresponds to his existing opinion.

What harm can bring this cognitive bias

You judge people wrong

It would seem that there is nothing wrong to be mistaken with human profession or his personal qualities. But if you think, the consequences can be very different: you could not recognize the fraudster, they got involved in the wrong crowd, missed important for a career or a valuable introduction to the company employee.

For example, in one experiment,On the psychology of prediction participants were asked to estimate the average scores of hypothetical students. For this they were given statistics estimates of the distribution. But participants ignored it, if they were given a narrative description of the students. In this case, the latter could not have absolutely nothing to do with learning and achievement.

So researchers have shown that when taking the interview at the university are useless.

This experiment demonstrates that we can not always judge people so accurately, to be guided only by their experiences.

anxiety level rises

Underestimating the statistical information can make a person overly hypochondriac. Fear of flying on an airplane, or the horror of an obsessive thought that the bus would be a bomb or a driver falls asleep at the wheel, can seriously affect the psyche. It makes suffer from anxiety and stress. A constant fear of what it is you Pick up a rare and terrible disease, can lead to hypochondria.

You make mistakes in critical situations

You want to give away their money under the high percentage of young and go to a little-known bank. You know that they are often unreliable and safer to apply to a large organization, offers a less pleasant conditions. But in the end have more confidence in a friend, who holds the money in the same bank, and good reviews on the Internet.

And sometimes an error can cost base percentage of health and even life.

Take the example of flu shot: You refuse to do it again, because the last time it will not help. In the end, it turns out that you get sick and get serious complications.

Or suppose you are working doctor. For a patient comes to you, which is examined, you see the symptoms of the terrible and rare diseases. It may seem that everything is obvious. But the fact that a rare disease, should get you to double-check the diagnosis. And if you do not, you can assign a wrong treatment and harm the patient.

How to deal with the error of the base interest

Do not jump to conclusions

If you managed to assess anything without much reasoning, stop and think. Most often, it is an occasion to rethink the phenomenon or situation again. The world is not so easy to draw conclusions on the basis of 2-3 obvious at first glance, criteria.

Avoid categorical

If you have already come to some conclusion, do not stop there - be flexible. You may have changed the input data or something you do not take into account, or a new significant information.

Collect more data

On the one hand, it seems reasonable to draw conclusions on the basis of specific information relating specifically to your situation. But on the other - a complete picture possible, only having a maximum of information. So look for and use it.

Filter information

To give something accurate estimate, you need not only complete, but also reliable data. Be careful with news publications and TV - there are often facts are fed selectively and focuses on something one.

As a result, the overall picture is broken and you perceive the information emotionally too.

Therefore, trust only the official statistics, research and backed by facts data.

liberalize

Constantly learn and interest in what is happening around. Try to learn something new from different areas. The more information you have, the less will have to guess where it is necessary to draw conclusions. In your hands will have the official figures and hard facts.