Why we do not judge the winners, even if they do badly
Forming / / December 19, 2019
Imagine that you come home after work and drink anything alcoholic. Then you call friends and invited to the camp. Take a taxi is too expensive, so you have decided to take a chance and hit the road by car. As a result, you got no problems, and have fun all night and even met the love of his life.
The decision to go to the camp was good? You'd think so. But in fact, a trip to the car in a drunken state is extremely bad idea. And if you have been deprived of rights, you have to admit it.
Life - it is not the task of logic, it is dominated by the case.
Therefore horrible decisions can lead to success, and good - with disastrous consequences. This is normal. The bad news is that we appreciate the decision by the result. it cognitive bias It called the deviation in the direction of the result or outcome bias, and it makes us not judge dishonest winners and sprinkle ashes on his head without any guilt.
Why we do not judge the winners
This distortion is foundOutcome bias in decision evaluation Baron researchers (J. Baron) and Hershey (J. C. Hershey) during a series of psychological experiments. They offered to participants to evaluate how well the doctor arrived, having decided on a risky operation. People warned that doctors have the same information that is available to them - neither more nor less. In this case, one said that the patient survived, the second - that died.
The first participants acknowledged that the decision was a good doctor was competent and they are in his place would have done the same. The second is called the decision a mistake, and physician competency assessed below. Scientists have come to the following conclusion:
People do not take into account the quality of the solutions and the associated risk. They focus only on the result.
A more recent studyNo Harm, No Foul: The Outcome Bias in Ethical Judgments It revealed several curious moments.
1. We are so attached to the outcome, which focus not notice the decision itself. In one embodiment, the test given in turn to assess the same two initial situation with different totals, and in the other - time to evaluate both. It would seem that in the second case, people must recognize that the solutions are equally good or bad. But the opposite happened: the effect is not only not disappeared, but increased.
2. We choose the winners, even if they are selfish. People were given to evaluate the two cases: in one sympathetic doctor appointed cheap tabletsBecause he cared about the patient's finances, and ultimately treatment gave pobochki. In the second egotistical doctor prescribed an expensive drug, because they get a percentage of its sales, and the patient was all wonderful. Participants know the motives of the two experts, but still chose to further cooperation doctor-egoist. However, when they did not know what the outcome of the story, always chose sympathetic.
We agree to work with selfish and bad guys, if they are lucky.
Why is that bad
Because you wait until the thunder will strike
For many years, accounting firms working in the USConflicts Of Interest And The Case Of Auditor Independence: Moral Seduction And Strategic Issue Cycling with customers not only as audience but also as consultants. The independence of their opinions was a big question, but the state ignored this problem.
Despite the fact that the objectivity and impartiality - the key factors of audit, on the incidental services employees for a long time turned a blind eye as long as the conflict of interests has not led to Enron big companies fall, WorldCom, and Tyco. Only then reviewed the activities of auditors in the United States. Evidence of unfair work existed long before the bankruptcy of large enterprises and the loss of thousands of workers places, but the state assessed the result, not the situation itself: Yes, there are violations, but nothing terrible It happened!
People often make the mistake. When a blind eye to negligence, spit on technique securityDo not worry about bad habits, because so far so good ...
Because blame yourself for good decisions
Gendir believes that the dismissal of the commercial director was the worst decision in recent years. Find the new does not work, sales fall, hit by managers confused.
It all began when the general began to look for the cause of low sales. He praised the work of the Commercial Director and saw his weaknesses. Initially, the idea was to divide responsibilities: let the director is doing what is strong and to the rest of you can take the other person. But then managers could lose confidence in such a leader, and I had to pay twice as much. It was logical to assume that there exists a man who could well perform all the duties of commercial director, and the last was fired.
But everything went wrong: was not a worthy candidate, and sales began to fall. head He blamed himself for poor tactics, but whether it was the truth itself? If we take into account everything that he knew at the time, the decision was deliberate and thoughtful. The specialist can not cope, then have to find someone who would be able to do it. At the time the decision was correct: the owner could not know whether people will find on the site director, until he began to look for him.
Solutions should be managed or failed to evaluate not by and by the fact that you've done everything to work out.
We often make the mistake: blame ourselves for the "bad" solutions, whereas in fact they were good, but by accident led to negative results. When you know the outcome, there is another cognitive bias - error hayndsayta. This is when you bitterly exclaims: "I knew it! I just felt like that would happen. " But this is only an illusion. Nobody is able to predict the future and figure out all the options are possible.
Because choosing the bad behavior model
Blame yourself for alleged bad decision - it's not so bad. Much worse is considered bad strategy for winning because once lucky and all ended well.
For example, if an athlete once tried doping controls went and won the competition, it can be recognized that the decision was a good and continue the course. But one day he was caught and taken away all the achievements.
How to overcome the error
To avoid falling into this the trap of thinking, You must first evaluate the decision-making process, not the end result. To do this, ask yourself a few questions:
- What led me to this decision?
- What information was known at that time?
- Could I find more information on the topic?
- Could I choose a different decision, if I had a choice in those circumstances?
- What I was told by other people, what they based their judgments?
- Was it necessary to make a decision at that moment?
And perhaps, you will find that in the circumstances no choice you did not have, and in terms of your experience was the only right decision.
see also🧐
- 25 errors of thinking, because of which we take the wrong decisions
- 5 cognitive distortions that killed your determination
- Why did we lose the good ideas and fall into the arms of scammers